This was a week for things that seemed settled to un-settle themselves.
Ninety-six percent of you figured Tarik Skubal would win his first start for the Dodgers. He didn't.
The Dodgers traded for the best pitcher in baseball two days before the deadline, and it's easy to see why almost nobody hedged — you don't trade for an ace to watch him lose his debut. But an ace only controls his own six innings. Skubal struck out six, allowed two runs, pitched like exactly what he is. The Dodgers' offense managed one. I think we did what people do whenever a big name changes teams — we bought the story instead of the odds. A great arm on a good team still loses if nobody hits that day. Talent doesn't override a sample size of one start.
Eighty-seven percent of you thought Apple would still be the world's most valuable company a week after it took the crown from Nvidia. It wasn't.
Apple and Nvidia have been trading that title back and forth most of the year, sometimes inside the same week, and we still treated the latest swap like a final answer instead of the current score. A headline that reads "Apple overtakes Nvidia" feels like an ending. It's really just a wave — you watch it come in and call it the tide.
Seventy-four percent of you thought gas would climb past $4.15 a gallon by Friday. It kept sliding instead, down under $4.03 by Saturday.
The setup made sense on paper — oil tension, peak summer driving, a price that had just ticked up. But a rising data point isn't a rising trend, and this one had already started rolling over before the coverage caught up to it. We predicted the headline. The chart had other plans.
None of these were dumb bets, honestly. They were reasonable reads of a single moment, mistaken for a forecast. That's most of what goes wrong here — not bad information, just a soft spot for whatever's already in motion.
New questions are live now. Let's see if the moment holds this time.
This week's resolutions
Sports
- Will the San Diego Padres trade closer Mason Miller before the August 3 deadline? → No
- Will 21 year old Jackson Koivun follow up last week's win with top 5 finish this week at Rocket Mortgage? → No
- Will the Dodgers beat the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball Aug 2? → No
- Will the Red Sox land a starting pitcher before Monday's 6 p.m. MLB trade deadline? → No
- With PGA now aligned with Asian Tour, will LIV Golf announce before 8/15 that it is shutting down? → No
- The Dodgers landed Tarik Skubal at the deadline. Will he win his first start for Los Angeles before Aug 9? → No
- Will the Indiana Fever beat the Minnesota Lynx on Sunday, August 2? → No
- Will the New York Mets trade pitcher Freddy Peralta before the August 3 trade deadline? → Yes
- Will the Chicago White Sox be alone in first place in the AL Central on Monday, August 3? → Yes
- Will the Panthers and Cardinals be separated by fewer than 7 points in the Aug 6 Hall of Fame Game? → Yes
- She hung 32 on Seattle July 28. Will Caitlin Clark drop 30 in a game again before Aug 8? → No
- Will the Cardinals beat the Panthers in the Aug 6 Hall of Fame Game? → No
- Will Luis Arraez record a multi-hit game for the Phillies before Aug 10? → Yes
- Will the New York Liberty beat the Phoenix Mercury by more than 10 points on Saturday, August 1? → No
- Will Brock Lesnar beat Oba Femi in SummerSlam's Hell in a Cell match on Saturday, August 1? → No
- Will CM Punk beat Cody Rhodes in SummerSlam's Night 1 main event on Saturday, August 1? → Yes
- Will Shohei Ohtani homer against the Red Sox on Aug 2? → No
- Will Yordan Alvarez still lead the majors in home runs on Monday, August 3? → Yes
- Will the San Francisco Giants trade Robbie Ray before the August 3 deadline? → Yes
- Will Kelsey Plum be traded before the WNBA's Aug 2 deadline? → Yes
- Will the Yankees pass the Rays for first place in the AL East by Sunday, August 2? → No
- Will the Detroit Tigers trade Tarik Skubal before the August 3 deadline? → Yes
- Will the New York Yankees acquire a starting pitcher before the August 3 trade deadline? → No
- Will the Detroit Tigers trade at least two players before the Aug 3 deadline? → Yes
- The Yankees sit 61-48. Will they beat the Cardinals on Aug 4? → Yes
- Will the Cardinals and Panthers combine for more than 30 points in the Hall of Fame Game on Thursday, August 6? → Yes
- Will the Patriots and cornerback Christian Gonzalez agree to a contract extension before Friday, August 7? → No
Markets
- Will Apple still be most valuable company in the world on 8/7 after passing Nvidia with mkt cap ~$5T? → No
- June added just 57,000 jobs. Will the July report top 100,000 when it lands Aug 7? → No
- Will AAA's national average for regular gas, now $4.10, top $4.15 a gallon by Aug 5? → No
- With Hormuz traffic creeping back, will Brent crude close above $95 a barrel before Aug 7? → No
- Apple slid 7.1% Friday on chip-shortage warnings. Will its stock close higher on Aug 7 than on July 31? → Yes
- Analysts see $25.4 billion. Will Disney's quarterly revenue top that when it reports Aug 5? → No
- SpaceX has slid to $108 from its $135 IPO price. Will the stock close below $100 on Aug 7? → No
- After Wednesday's 1,153-point drop, will the Dow close higher on Monday, August 3, than on Friday, July 31? → Yes
- Will Palantir's stock move more than 10% in either direction on Tuesday, August 4, after Monday's earnings? → Yes
- Will AMD beat Wall Street's $1.61 earnings estimate when it reports Tuesday, August 4? → Yes
- Will Disney raise its full-year earnings guidance when it reports on Wednesday, August 5? → No
- Will the 30-year mortgage rate top 6.70% in Freddie Mac's August 6 survey? → No
- Will Palantir guide full-year 2026 revenue above $8 billion when it reports on August 3? → Yes
- Will the TSA screen more than 3 million people on Aug 2? → No
- Will the ISM manufacturing index come in below 50 when July's reading lands Aug 3? → No
- Will Tyson Foods raise its full-year revenue outlook when it reports Aug 3? → No
- Will the Powerball jackpot, now $667 million, top $750 million for the Aug 5 drawing? → Yes
- Will Caterpillar beat Wall Street's consensus earnings estimate when it reports Aug 4? → Yes
- Will McDonald's report positive U.S. same-store sales when it reports Aug 4? → Yes
- Will Uber's stock close higher on Aug 5, the day it reports second-quarter results? → No
- Does Shopify top $0.39 a share when it reports second-quarter results Aug 5? → Yes
- Will Eli Lilly beat Wall Street's $6.71 earnings estimate when it reports Aug 5? → Yes
- Does the ISM services index top 50 when the July reading lands Aug 5? → Yes
- Will the ADP report show fewer than 50,000 private jobs added in July when it lands Aug 5? → Yes
- Will Pfizer raise its full-year profit forecast when it reports Aug 5? → No
- It touched 4.737% Friday. Will the 10-year Treasury yield close above 4.80% before Aug 7? → No
- SpaceX insiders can start selling Aug 6. Will the stock drop more than 5% that day? → No
- The Nasdaq composite ended July at 25,374. Will it close above 25,600 on Aug 7? → Yes
- Will the S&P 500 close higher on Aug 7 than it did on July 31? → Yes
- Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above 54,000 on Aug 7? → Yes
- Will the July jobs report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added when it's released on August 7? → Yes
- Airbnb reports after the close Aug 6. Will its stock move more than 8% on Aug 7? → Yes
- Will the July jobs report revise June payrolls lower when it lands Aug 7? → Yes
- Gold just cracked $4,100. Will it close above $4,200 an ounce by Aug 7? → Yes
- Will gold close below $4,050 an ounce before Aug 8? → No
- It was 4.2% in June. Will the unemployment rate hit 4.3% or higher in the July jobs report on Aug 7? → No
Politics
- Will an R revolt cause Blanche's nomination for Atty General to be pulled before a full Senate vote? → No
- Will Mitch McConnell let us know before Aug 5 when he will return to the Senate? → No
- Will Senate pass stopgap funding bill to keep the govt open before their summer break begins on 8/8? → Yes
- Will Missouri's secretary of state certify the congressional map referendum petition by the August 4 deadline? → No
- Will R Senator Cornyn vote 'no' in Judiciary Cmte ending Blanche's bid to become @realAttyGeneral? → No
- Will the Senate Judiciary Committee vote to advance Todd Blanche's attorney general nomination by Aug 7? → Yes
- Will progressive Dr. Abdul El-Sayed beat the establishment D candidate in Mich Senate primary on 8/4? → Yes
- Will a Senate committee vote to hold Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress before Aug 8? → Yes
- Will Senate Republicans stick together and confirm Todd Blanche as the Attorney General? → Yes
- Will the Senate confirm Todd Blanche as attorney general by Aug 9? → Yes
- Will the Senate pass the $1.15 trillion defense authorization bill before its Aug 8 recess? → No
- Will Adam Hamilton win Kansas's Democratic Senate primary on August 4? → Yes
- Will Curt Skoog win Kansas's Democratic primary for governor on August 4? → No
- Will more than 1 million ballots be cast in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary on Aug 4? → Yes
- Will Rand Paul refer Anthony Fauci to the Justice Department for prosecution before Aug 8? → Yes
- Will the Senate vote again on a resolution limiting Trump's war powers on Iran before Aug 8? → No
- Will the Senate confirm the S.Res. 817 bloc of nominations before Friday, August 7? → No
- Will Trump withdraw Todd Blanche's attorney general nomination before the Senate's Aug 8 recess? → No
- Will the Senate pass its first fiscal 2027 appropriations bill before the Aug 8 recess? → No
- Will the Justice Department give Cornyn and Tillis written assurance the $1.776 billion weaponization fund is dead before Aug 4? → Yes
- Will Thom Tillis vote to advance Todd Blanche's attorney general nomination at the Aug 4 committee meeting? → Yes
- Will Missouri voters approve Amendment 5 to phase out the state income tax on August 4? → No
- Will Ty Masterson take more than 50% of the vote in Kansas's Republican primary for governor on August 4? → No
- Will John James win Michigan's Republican primary for governor by more than 20 points on August 4? → No
- Will Roger Marshall clear 60% in Kansas's Republican Senate primary on Aug 4? → Yes
- Will Kansas voters approve the amendment to elect the state's Supreme Court justices on August 4? → No
- Will the AP call Michigan's Democratic Senate primary before midnight Aug 4? → No
- He polled at 54% last week. Will Abdul El-Sayed clear 55% in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary Aug 4? → No
- Will Jocelyn Benson take at least 60% of the vote in Michigan's Democratic primary for governor on August 4? → Yes
- Will Secretary of State Scott Schwab finish second in Kansas's Republican primary for governor on Aug 4? → No
- Emanuel Cleaver's district was redrawn. Will he clear 70% in Missouri's Democratic primary for the 5th on Aug 4? → Yes
- Will Michigan's Democratic Senate primary be decided by fewer than 10 points on Aug 4? → Yes
- Will John Cornyn publicly commit to voting for Todd Blanche before Aug 7? → Yes
- Will Kshama Sawant advance out of Washington's 9th District primary Aug 4? → No
- Will the Senate pass the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act by Friday, August 7? → Yes
- Will the Senate confirm Todd Blanche as attorney general before Friday, August 7? → No
- Will the Senate pass a Russia sanctions bill before it leaves for its Aug 8 recess? → Yes
- Will the Senate pass a FISA Section 702 reauthorization before its Aug 8 recess? → No
- Will at least 10 Democrats vote for cloture on the defense authorization bill before Aug 8? → No
- Will the Senate's stopgap funding bill clear the chamber with at least 70 votes before Aug 9? → Yes
- Will the Senate push its August recess back past Aug 8? → No
- Will the Senate confirm Keith Sonderling as labor secretary before Aug 8? → No
World
- Will we learn b4 8/7 of the military saying 'no' to an order from Trump because they deem it unlawful? → No
- Will Sam Altman's DC meetings this week result in support from the White House for new OpenAI products? → No
- Will all 50 states report at least one cyclospora case before Aug 5th? Current count is 41. → No
- Will OPEC+ agree to raise oil production at its meeting on Sunday, August 2? → Yes
- Will any weather station in France record 110F before Aug 7? → No
- Will Egypt publicly blame Iran for the drone strikes on its Mediterranean ports before Aug 6? → No
- Will Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visit the earthquake-hit Kumamoto region before Monday, August 3? → No
- Will the U.S. and Iran hold a new round of in-person talks before Friday, August 7? → No
- Will Brazil send its ambassador back to Argentina before Friday, August 7? → No
- Will France's Gironde wildfires burn more than 150,000 acres before Aug 7? → No
- Will CENTCOM announce new strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq before Aug 7? → No
Culture
- Will the upcoming comedy I Want Your Sex have a higher Popcornmeter rating than The Invite's 91%? → No
- Will 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' out 7/31 surpass Toy Story 5 for top US grossing opening wknd in '26? → Yes
- Can 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' clear $300 million domestically in its opening weekend? → Yes
- Will North America's total box office top $275 million for the July 31–August 2 weekend? → Yes
- Will any film other than 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' top $10 million domestically over the July 31-August 2 weekend? → Yes
- Will 'The Gentleman Thief' finish in the top five at the domestic box office in its opening weekend? → No
- Will Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' log a 16th week at No. 1 on the Hot 100 chart dated August 8? → Yes
- Will Gracie Abrams' 'Daughter From Hell' hold the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 chart dated August 8? → No
- Will 'Big Brother' Season 28's Aug 6 eviction vote be unanimous? → No
- Will 'Ted Lasso' Season 4 hold a Tomatometer score of 85% or higher on Friday, August 7? → Yes
- Will Netflix's 'Little House on the Prairie' reboot reach the U.S. daily Top 10 by Friday, July 31? → Yes
- Will 'The Hawk,' Will Ferrell's golf comedy, still top Netflix's U.S. show chart on Friday, July 31? → Yes
- She's been playing one 'Petal' song on tour. Will Ariana Grande do more than two at her Aug 3 Chicago show? → Yes
- Will Taylor be evicted from 'Big Brother' on Aug 6? → No
Discovery
- A dead SpaceX rocket hits the moon Aug 5. Will astronomers report seeing its impact plume from Earth before Aug 9? → Yes
- Will Minnesota issue another air-quality alert before Friday, August 7? → Yes
- Will U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs post net inflows for the week ending Friday, August 7? → Yes
- Will Nvidia and OpenAI announce a final agreement on the $250 billion data center backstop before August 7? → No
- Will the National Hurricane Center name a new Atlantic tropical storm before Monday, August 3? → No
- It stood at 2,318 on July 23. Will the CDC's 2026 measles count top 2,450 in its Aug 5 update? → No
- Will the CDC's confirmed cyclospora count, now 4,173, top 5,000 in its next weekly update? → Yes
- Will U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs post a single-day net outflow above $200 million before Aug 7? → Yes