Will the ISM manufacturing index come in below 50 when July's reading lands Aug 3?
50% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 2 predictions cast.
The Institute for Supply Management's July 2026 Manufacturing PMI registered 55.6%, released August 3 -- well above the 50% threshold that separates expansion from contraction, and 2.3 percentage points higher than June's reading. It was the highest level since May 2022.
The reading marked the seventh straight month of manufacturing expansion, driven by a New Orders Index of 56.7% and a Production Index of 58.5%, the latter the strongest since November 2021. The Employment Index rose to 52.8%, moving into expansion territory for the first time in nearly three years. Fifteen of eighteen tracked manufacturing industries reported growth in July, with only chemical products in contraction.
The strong print surprised some forecasters who had expected manufacturing to soften given elevated interest rates and lingering tariff-related cost pressures; the Prices Index eased slightly to 71.1% from June's 73%, suggesting some moderation in input-cost inflation even as output accelerated.
The community was evenly split on this question (50% yes/no on a sub-50 reading), and the outcome landed decisively on "no" -- the index came in far above the contraction threshold.