Will the July jobs report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added when it's released on August 7?

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on August 7, well under the 100,000 threshold in question and a sharp miss versus the roughly 83,000 job gain economists had forecast. The decline marked an outright loss of jobs rather than merely slower growth, driven primarily by a reduction of 53,000 government positions, while private employers added a modest 30,000 jobs. The report also included downward revisions to May and June payrolls totaling 103,000 jobs combined, indicating the labor market had been softer in the preceding months than initially reported. Sectors including retail, leisure and hospitality showed weakness, and healthcare hiring, typically a steady source of job growth, slowed from its usual pace. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, but largely because the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, its lowest level in over five years, rather than because of stronger hiring. Predict Six's community was unanimous in predicting this outcome, with 100% forecasting fewer than 100,000 jobs added, matching the actual result and reflecting broad anticipation of a weakening jobs market heading into the report's release.