Will the July jobs report revise June payrolls lower when it lands Aug 7?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised June's nonfarm payroll gain down to 20,000 from the previously reported 57,000, a cut of 37,000 jobs, as part of its August 7, 2026 employment report. May's payroll figure was also revised down, falling by 66,000 to a gain of just 63,000, bringing the combined two-month downward revision to 103,000 jobs. Such revisions occur routinely as the BLS incorporates more complete survey responses in later months, and the size of this adjustment signaled the labor market had been weaker in late spring than initial estimates indicated. The downward revisions arrived alongside a July payroll decline of 23,000, reinforcing a picture of a slowing labor market rather than an isolated one-month anomaly. Predict Six's community was unanimous in anticipating this outcome, with 100% predicting the July report would revise June payrolls lower, matching the actual result. The revision continued a pattern seen in recent months of initial payroll estimates being adjusted downward as more complete data became available, a trend that has drawn attention from economists tracking the health of the labor market.