It touched 4.737% Friday. Will the 10-year Treasury yield close above 4.80% before Aug 7?
50% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 2 predictions cast.
The 10-year Treasury yield did not close above 4.80% before August 7, 2026. The yield touched an 18-month high of 4.75% on Friday, July 31, as it tracked rising oil prices and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting a rate hike could still be needed, but it did not push through the 4.80% mark. In the following days the yield retreated, trading around 4.61% to 4.63% between August 4 and 6, according to Federal Reserve data. The pullback followed the Fed's late-July meeting, at which policymakers held the benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75% despite three dissents favoring an increase, and came as easing fuel prices reduced pressure for near-term tightening. The 4.737% level referenced in the question, from the prior Friday, ended up close to the eventual peak rather than a stepping stone toward 4.80%. Community sentiment was split evenly at 50 percent yes on just two votes, and the outcome resolved no.