Will 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' out 7/31 surpass Toy Story 5 for top US grossing opening wknd in '26?
61% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 33 predictions cast.
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day," which opened July 31, surpassed "Toy Story 5" to become 2026's biggest domestic opening weekend, grossing an estimated $355 million compared to Toy Story 5's $160 million debut in June. The Pixar sequel had held the year's opening-weekend record for roughly six weeks; it itself had bested "Toy Story 4's" 2019 debut by nearly $40 million and posted the second-biggest opening ever for a Pixar release, per Variety and The Hollywood Reporter.
"Brand New Day's" haul — the second-largest domestic opening of all time behind "Avengers: Endgame" — more than doubled Toy Story 5's mark, resetting the year's benchmark by a wide margin, driven by record-setting Friday, Saturday, and Sunday tallies.
The community underestimated this outcome, with only 39% predicting Spider-Man would top Toy Story 5's mark, likely reflecting uncertainty about whether a franchise reboot could outdraw an established, multigenerational Pixar sequel. In the event, the comparison was not close: "Brand New Day" beat Toy Story 5's opening by roughly $195 million, making it one of the more lopsided box-office comparisons of the year.