It stood at 2,318 on July 23. Will the CDC's 2026 measles count top 2,450 in its Aug 5 update?
50% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 2 predictions cast.
The CDC's national measles count stood at 2,318 confirmed cases as of July 23, 2026, and rose to 2,371 by the agency's next weekly update on July 30 — an increase of 53 cases, according to CIDRAP's reporting on the CDC data. That pace, roughly 50 to 55 new cases per week, left the running total well short of the 2,450 mark heading into the following week.
The 2026 outbreak, driven largely by clusters concentrated in a handful of states, had already surpassed the 2,289 cases confirmed for all of 2025, making 2026 the worst year for measles in the U.S. since 1991. About 94% of confirmed 2026 cases have been linked to identified outbreaks, with no reported deaths as of late July.
The prediction market's community vote was evenly split at 50% "yes," reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the count would clear 2,450. Based on the confirmed CDC weekly trend available before resolution, the count did not reach that threshold.