Will Kshama Sawant advance out of Washington's 9th District primary Aug 4?
100% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 2 predictions cast.
U.S. Rep. Adam Smith won Washington's 9th Congressional District primary on Aug. 4, 2026, taking roughly 51% of the vote and advancing to the November general election under the state's top-two primary system. Republican Doug Basler finished second with about 24%, securing the other general-election spot. Kshama Sawant, the former Seattle City Council member running as an independent socialist, placed third with roughly 13% of the vote, which eliminated her from advancing.
Sawant's third-place finish came despite a campaign that raised significantly more money than Basler's. Left-leaning votes split among Sawant, Smith and other progressive-leaning candidates in the multi-candidate field, while Republican-leaning voters consolidated behind Basler. The result sets up a Smith-Basler general-election matchup, extending a rivalry between the two that has recurred in prior cycles.
The prediction market's community vote skewed heavily toward "yes" on Sawant advancing (100% across two votes), but the actual outcome was no — a clear miss, though based on a very small sample.