With Hormuz traffic creeping back, will Brent crude close above $95 a barrel before Aug 7?

Brent crude did not close above $95 a barrel before August 7, 2026, despite elevated prices tied to the Strait of Hormuz standoff between the U.S. and Iran. Brent traded at roughly $87 a barrel on August 3 and $89.81 on August 4, then swung between $78.72 and $83.34 over August 5-6 as markets weighed progress toward a Hormuz shipping arrangement mediated by Oman. Prices had been supported through late July by fears that Iran would restrict tanker traffic through the strait, but reports of a possible interim deal to reopen the waterway eased the risk premium and kept Brent well short of $95. Volatility remained high day to day, with one session showing a nearly 5% jump, reflecting how sensitive the market stayed to headlines about the negotiations. The community leaned toward yes at 57 percent across 30 votes, but the outcome resolved no, meaning a majority of forecasters misjudged the ceiling on oil prices during this stretch.