Will Brazil send its ambassador back to Argentina before Friday, August 7?
100% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 2 predictions cast.
Brazil formally downgraded diplomatic relations with Argentina to the charge d'affaires level on August 4, 2026, meaning neither country would have an ambassador posted in the other's capital. The rift began in late July when Brazil recalled ambassador Julio Bitelli after Argentine President Javier Milei made disparaging remarks about President Lula da Silva at a rally for former president Jair Bolsonaro. Tensions deepened rather than easing after Milei renewed his insults toward Lula, calling him an ex-convict and a thief in a television interview in early August, prompting Brazil's foreign ministry to formally reduce ties and inform Argentina's ambassador in Brasilia, Daniel Raimondi, of the decision. As a result, Bitelli remained in Brazil rather than returning to his post in Buenos Aires, and no ambassador was sent back before the August 7 deadline in this question. The freeze marked the sharpest rupture in relations between the two South American economic powers in decades, though it stopped short of a full severance of ties. The prediction market community anticipated this outcome, with 0% forecasting a Yes resolution, correctly gauging that the rift would not be resolved within the window.