Ninety-one percent of you were sure no immaculate inning was coming before August. Nine pitches later, in the fourth against the Twins, Gavin Williams struck out the side without a single ball put in play — the first time a Guardians pitcher had done it since 2022.
I don't think you were wrong to bet no. Immaculate innings happen a handful of times a season across all of baseball — they're rare almost by definition, which is exactly why betting against one is usually the right call. This is the part of forecasting nobody likes to sit with: you can run the correct process and still lose to a guy with a nasty slider having the best nine pitches of his year. The math doesn't owe you a good outcome. It just owes you good odds. Sometimes lightning still finds the tallest tree.
Eighty percent of you figured Senate GOP leadership would let the SAVE Act quietly wither rather than say the word "dead" out loud. They said it anyway.
The signal was sitting in plain view for weeks — Tillis, Collins, Murkowski, even McConnell had already broken from the president on it, and Schumer had been calling it dead on arrival since mid-July. What I think we underweighted is how much easier it is to declare something dead than to keep defending a slow bleed. Leadership didn't cave under pressure so much as take the exit that cost them the least. Worth remembering next time a bill is technically alive but everyone in the room already knows better.
Seventy-five percent of you bet Apple would close higher the day after Tim Cook's final earnings call. Record quarter, iPhone revenue up 22%, a $5 trillion market cap in the same week — and the stock fell anyway.
Cook buried the real story in the second half of the call: a "hundred-year flood" in memory chip pricing, driven by AI datacenters hoovering up the same components Apple needs, with guidance that came in soft. We were all watching the goodbye speech. The market was reading the fine print. The sentimental headline and the number that actually moves the stock are rarely the same sentence.
New questions are up for the week ahead. Try not to fall in love with the story this time — I'll try too.
This week's resolutions
Culture
- Will Hulu publicly distance themselves this week from Taylor Frankie Paul after more bad sh#t revealed? → No
- Will Trump call in to Michael Cohen's radio show before 7/31 as a 'friendly' guest? Buddies again?! → No
- Will new Spider-Man movie out on 7/31 have both Tomatometer & Popcornmeter ratings of 80%+? → Yes
- Will Marvel Studios announce a new movie series during its Hall H presentation at Comic-Con this wknd? → No
- Will Paul Pelosi lose his license sometime in July after his little hit-and-run incident? → No
- Will 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' open with an audience CinemaScore grade of A or higher? → Yes
Discovery
Markets
- Will both Microsoft and Meta stocks rise the day after they report earnings on July 29? → No
- Will SpaceX stock recover from recent selling to close over $200 anytime in July? Currently at $150. → No
- With all the crazy sh#t going on, will Consumer Confidence fall in its next report on 7/28? → Yes
- Will more than one Fed official dissent from Wednesday's interest-rate decision? → Yes
- Will Apple's stock close higher on Friday, July 31, the day after Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO? → No
- Will the Fed hold interest rates steady at 7/29 meeting, even with new inflation pressure mounting? → Yes
- Will Q2 GDP growth come in above 2.0% when it's reported Thursday? → No
- Will both Amazon & Apple report stronger than expected quarterly earnings in their 7/30 release? → Yes
- Will the Weekly Jobless Claims that comes out on 7/30 fall, showing improvement in the job market? → No
- Will the 10 year treasury yield, now at 4.7%, its highest level since Jan '25, fall next week? → No
- With Jim 'Cray Cray' Cramer struggling to find reasons to buy, will the S&P fall next week? → No
- Will Coca-Cola have a sugary sweet earnings report on Tues beating consensus estimate of $.92/shr? → Yes
- Will Ford's stock close higher on Wednesday, July 29, the day after its quarterly earnings? → Yes
- Will Exxon Mobil beat Wall Street's earnings estimate when it reports on Friday, July 31? → No
- Will Bitcoin be above $62,000 at 5 p.m. ET on Friday, July 31? → Yes
- Will Freddie Mac's Thursday survey show the 30-year mortgage rate above 6.60%? → Yes
- Will Brent crude close below $85 a barrel on Friday, July 31? → No
Politics
- Paxton & Talarico tied in new poll for TX senate seat. Will Talarico lead anytime in July per RCP Ave? → Yes
- Will the Senate actually vote on the new crypto bill anytime next week? So far, no Dem support. → No
- After Trump's demand to pass it, will R Senate leadership declare SAVE Act officially dead next week? → Yes
- Will Mitch McConnell return to the Capital, even if its just for a visit, before the end of July? → No
- Will Trump express frustration with Netanyahu w/i 24 hours after their face-to-face meeting on Tues? → No
- Will any states agree in July to Trump's voting restriction demands in order to get terrorism funds? → No
- Will the new tariffs be put on hold by the courts b4 month end because of newly filed lawsuits? → No
- Will the Senate confirm Walter Clayton as Director of National Intelligence before Friday, July 31? → Yes
Sports
- Will Messi announce his retirement from the Argentina national team before the end of July? → No
- Will 19 year old phenom Kimi Antonelli finish in the top 3 of the Hungarian Grand Prix this wknd? → Yes
- Will Caitlin Clark get her 8th technical foul and a 1 game suspension before the end of July? → No
- Will there be a no-hitter, hit-for-the-cycle, or immaculate inning before the end of July? → Yes
- Will Team Clark beat Team Bueckers in the WNBA All-Star Game on Saturday? → Yes
- Will the Mariners lead the AL West after their 4 game series vs Rangers in Texas? → No
- Will elements of toxic online WNBA fan base disrupt this weekend's All Star game? Chants, signs, etc → No
- Will Uros Medic beat Daniel Rodriguez in UFC Belgrade's Aug 1 main event? → Yes
World
- Will Zelenskyy rehire b4 8/1 the defense minister after public protests over his firing? → No
- Will the threatened 'MASSIVE ATTACK' on Iran be launched by this Sunday? → No
- Will the nuke deal with Saudi's fall apart before the weekend is over? → No
- Will Trump lambast big oil for big profits w/i a day after Chevron & Exxon report results on 7/31? → No
- With more troop deaths & escalating attacks, will Trump order ground troops into Iran before 8/1? → No
- With a slow start to hurricane season, will a Category 3 storm form in the Atlantic b4 8/1? → No
- Will the U.S. and Iran agree to a ceasefire by Friday, July 31? → No
- Will Trump follow through on his threat to blow up an Iranian power plant before the weekend is over? → No
- Will charges be filed b4 8/1 against the inspection company for work done on failing high rise in NYC? → No
- Will the CDC's 2026 U.S. measles case count top 2,350 in its next weekly update? Currently at 2,318. → Yes
- With extreme fire conditions all over this land, will a town be mostly leveled by wildfire in July? → No
- Will at least three Bank of England policymakers vote to raise the Bank Rate on Thursday, July 30? → Yes
- Will the United States resume airstrikes on Iran before Sunday, August 2? → Yes