Paxton & Talarico tied in new poll for TX senate seat. Will Talarico lead anytime in July per RCP Ave?
75% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 44 predictions cast.
Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton in the RealClearPolling average for the 2026 Texas Senate race at multiple points during July 2026, resolving this question yes. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey conducted July 15-17 among 1,048 likely voters found Talarico ahead 45% to 40%, a 5-point lead, with Talarico posting the best net favorability rating (+12) of any candidate tested, compared to Paxton's -13.
The Texas Tribune and other outlets reported the same widening lead in late July, citing Talarico's strength on affordability, the top issue for 44% of surveyed voters, and large margins among Black and Latino voters offsetting Paxton's advantage with white voters. The shift followed a stretch in which the race had been effectively tied in RCP's polling average. Talarico, a state legislator, is running to succeed retiring Senator John Cornyn in a race Republicans have historically dominated statewide. The community had assigned a 75% chance to Talarico taking the polling lead at some point in July, and the result matched that expectation as multiple surveys showed him ahead heading into August.