Will Q2 GDP growth come in above 2.0% when it's reported Thursday?

Second-quarter U.S. GDP growth came in at 1.5%, below the 2.0% threshold the question asked about, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate released Thursday, July 30, 2026. The reading also missed the roughly 2.1% growth rate economists had forecast and marked a slowdown from the first quarter's approximately 2.1% pace.

The BEA attributed the increase in output to gains in consumer spending, business investment, and exports, which were partly offset by a decline in government spending; a rise in imports, which subtract from GDP in the calculation, also weighed on the headline number. The slowdown came as inflation remained elevated, squeezing consumers and complicating the economic backdrop for the Federal Reserve, which had held interest rates steady at its meeting the day before.

The weaker growth figure landed the same week as a mixed jobless claims report and a closely watched round of Big Tech earnings, adding to a picture of an economy expanding more slowly than expected even as individual sectors, particularly AI-linked tech spending, showed pockets of strength.

The community was evenly split heading into the report, with 47% predicting growth above 2.0%, meaning the 53% majority read the slowdown correctly.