Will Brent crude close below $85 a barrel on Friday, July 31?

Brent crude did not close below $85 a barrel on Friday, July 31, 2026, resolving this question no. Oil prices had slid earlier in the week on reports Iran might halt its attacks amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict, with Brent dropping roughly $6 to around $84 by July 27-28 on hopes of a pause in hostilities. Prices firmed back up into the end of the week, however, with Brent trading around $86 a barrel on Friday, settling above the $85 threshold this question required.

The moves tracked closely with headlines around the U.S.-Iran conflict: reports of de-escalation pushed prices down, while continued uncertainty over whether a durable ceasefire would hold kept a floor under the market. Volatility in energy markets through late July was driven largely by the on-again, off-again pattern of strikes and pauses between the U.S. and Iran. The community was evenly split on this question, with a 50% yes probability from a small sample of votes, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which direction oil would move given the fluid geopolitical backdrop heading into month's end.