Will the Fed hold interest rates steady at 7/29 meeting, even with new inflation pressure mounting?

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its July 29, 2026 meeting, marking the fifth consecutive policy meeting this year without a rate change. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 in favor of holding, with three regional bank presidents dissenting in favor of a hike rather than a cut.

The decision came despite mounting inflation pressure, driven in part by rising oil prices linked to the ongoing Iran conflict, and despite public pressure from President Trump for the Fed to lower rates. Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters after the meeting that the economy remained "solid," citing strong capital expenditure, productivity and labor-market data as reasons the committee saw no need to move rates in either direction. The Fed's statement reaffirmed that inflation remains elevated because of the run-up in energy prices and repeated its commitment to price stability.

The Predict Six community strongly anticipated this outcome, with 94% of voters predicting the Fed would hold steady. That confidence proved well placed: officials opted for continuity over reacting to short-term inflation pressure, even as three of their own colleagues pushed for tightening.