Will the 10 year treasury yield, now at 4.7%, its highest level since Jan '25, fall next week?

The 10-year Treasury yield did not fall the following week, ending July 2026 close to where it started, resolving this question no. The yield had climbed to about 4.7%, its highest level since January 2025, amid persistent inflation concerns and a Federal Reserve that opted to hold rates steady rather than cut at its July 29 meeting despite a split committee. By Friday, July 31, the 10-year was trading in a range of roughly 4.67% to 4.75%, essentially unchanged to modestly higher over the week rather than declining.

Upward pressure on yields came from a combination of stubborn inflation data, mounting concerns about federal deficits, and a wave of strong corporate earnings from megacap tech companies including Amazon and Apple that reinforced expectations the Fed would stay patient on rate cuts. The elevated yield level continued to weigh on rate-sensitive sectors, including housing, where Freddie Mac's mortgage survey the same week showed the 30-year rate climbing to 6.66%. The community was closely split, with 45% predicting a decline, but yields instead held firm near multi-month highs.