Some weeks the crowd gets fooled by things nobody could have known. This wasn't one of them.
Three big misses, and in each one the answer was standing in plain sight the whole time. We just liked the story better.
86% of you were sure a dominant Argentina would beat Cinderella Cape Verde by at least two goals.
Argentina needed extra time to win by one.
Cape Verde came into that match having already clawed back from behind twice this tournament — a squad from an archipelago of half a million people, playing like they had nothing to lose because they didn't. We saw "dominant" next to "Cinderella" and filled in the ending we've watched a hundred times. But "the favorite wins" and "the favorite wins big" are two different bets. A hawk is favored over a sparrow every time — and still comes home hungry more often than you'd guess. The hungry, smaller side tends to close the gap, even in defeat.
77% of you thought the Dow would close June under 50,000.
It closed at 52,319 — a record.
The setup was irresistible: Buffett's favorite indicator "screaming sell," the sense that a reckoning was overdue. And it may well be. But an overdue reckoning and next Tuesday's closing price are not the same question. That indicator has flashed "overvalued" for years now — a broken clock insisting it's finally midnight. Markets can stay expensive far longer than any of us can stay patient. We keep betting on the storm because the storm makes a better story than another quiet, sunny quarter.
77% of you called the Madison Square Garden wedding rumor a bluff.
Taylor and Travis got married at Madison Square Garden.
This is the one that should sting a little, because the evidence wasn't hidden — it was a stage going up, in public, at the most famous arena in the country. A no-phone policy was leaking to the tabloids. The venue was quietly going dark. And still we said no, because "too obvious to be true" can feel a lot like wisdom. Sometimes the rumor is just the truth showing up early.
Three misses, one habit worth breaking: look hard at what's actually in front of you before you reach for the story you already know.
Next week's questions are up. Let's see what we're staring straight past this time.
—Phil
This week's resolutions
Sports
- Will a European be the first to wear the yellow jersey after the first stage of the Tour de France? → Yes
- Will Kim K's beau Hamilton Lewis follow up his Barcelona F1 win with top 5 finish in Austria on 6/28? → Yes
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will Messi sit for at least 1/2 the total min. in match vs Jordan on 6/27? → Yes
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will the US recover from their loss to Turkey with a victory over Bosnia on Wed? → Yes
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will an underdog African team upset their European opponent on Wed? → No
- Will at least 1 Top 6 seed in both the men's & women's Wimbledon singles draws lose in the 1st round? → Yes
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will either Spain or Portugal lose on Thur vs Austria & Croatia, respectively? → No
- WC PROGNOSTICATION:Will Messi score on Fri to extend his record setting WC goal streak to 8 games? → Yes
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will all of the top 10 ranked teams advance out of Group Play? → Yes
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will a dominant Argentina beat Cinderella Cape Verde by at least 2 goals on Fri? → No
- Back from injury, will Cal Raleigh raise his batting ave from .165 to .200+ by 7/4? Dig Deeper for hint. → No
- Will it be revealed by 6/30 that the LA Dodgers doc has been dispensing PED's to any players? → No
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will Canada beat So Africa on Sunday? First time for both in knockout stage!! → Yes
- Will Serena Williams win her first singles match at Wimbledon after receiving a wild card invite? → No
- Will Spurs announce a coaching change by 6/30 after multiple collapses in their NBA finals loss to NY? → No
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will Brazil beat Japan on Monday in Houston? Dig Deeper for game storylines. → Yes
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Germany v Paraguay. Netherlands v Morocco. Monday. Will either game go extra time? → Yes
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will favored Norway (v Ivory Coast) and France (v Sweden) both win on Tuesday? → Yes
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will Canada upset the favored Morocco on Saturday in the round of 16? → No
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will homophobic chants continue in the 6/30 Mexico/Ecuador match in Mexico City? → Yes
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will Iran advance out of group play? Group includes NZ, Belgium & Egypt. → No
Markets
- Will Trump Media stock, trading near all time low of $7.90, close above $8 by 7/10? → Yes
- Will Nike's 4th quarter results that come out on Tues beat both revenue and earnings expectations? → Yes
- Will Apple stock close at $300+ any day this week? It dropped below $280 after announced price hikes. → Yes
- Allbirds is now an AI infrastructure company. Go figure!! Will its stock double from $5 to $10 b4 7/1? → No
- With AI stocks struggling, will Nvidia bounce back to close 'up' next week? Down 17% from its high. → Yes
- Will the June unemployment rate increase over May's number? Tough job market for summer break kids! → No
- With Warren Buffett's favorite stock mkt indicator 'screaming sell', will the Dow end June below 50k? → No
Politics
- Will the RCP polling average for Trump's approval rating be 40%+ on June 30? 40.4% now. → Yes
- Will the $1.1 trillion defense spending bill pass the House this week? → No
- After his humbling primary loss, will KY Thomas Massie announce an Independent senate run b4 July 4? → No
- Will Platner maintain his RCP polling lead over Collins for Maine Senate seat on June 30? → Yes
- Will Trump reverse course and sign the bipartisan Housing Bill before July 1? → No
- Will lefty challenger Julie Gonzales upset incumbent Hickenlooper in D Senate primary on 6/30 in CO? → No
- Given current health issues, will Mitch McConnell announce an early exit from Senate b4 July 4? → No
- Will Gov Gav's polymarket odds for the '28 Dem Nomination stay above 20% on July 4? Leads now at 25%. → Yes
- Will RCP ave polling for R prez nomination show Vance with a 10%+ advantage over Rubio on June 30? → Yes
- Will Trump openly criticize SCOTUS over the next week as it issues this session's final rulings? → Yes
- Will 29 yr old Dem Socialist Melat Kiros beat Diana DeGette who's held Denver's House seat for 30 yrs? → Yes
- Will Trump's proposed Arch receive final approval from the Capital Planning Commish b4 July 4? → No
- Will the Senate pass the SAVE voting act before 7/4 even though the votes aren't there right now? → No
- Will SCOTUS rule that mail in ballots must be received by election day to be counted? → No
- First 'No', then 'Not no'. Will Gretchen Whitmer announce b4 July 4 that she is running for prez? → No
Culture
- Will the 6th & last Jackass movie out on June 26 have the franchises' highest opening wknd box office? → No
- Will it be reported that someone died over Jackass's opening weekend trying to 'copycat' a stunt? → No
- Will Travis & Taylor's wedding attire be primarily shades of black and/or white? → Yes
- Will the Supreme Court uphold West Virginia's ban on transgender athletes in girls' sports? → Yes
- Will Stephen Colbert announce sometime in June the creation of a new show that he stars in? → No
- Wait, wait... there's more! Will we see new Epstein files by the 7/2 deadline just ordered by judge? → No
- Will the rumors be true that Taylor and Travis are getting married at Madison Square Garden in NYC? → Yes
- Will a photo of Taylor & Travis's "you may now kiss" wedding moment be released b4 midnight Fri? → No
- Will it be confirmed by Amazon Studios before July 4 that Callum Turner is the new James Bond? → No
- Will it be announced before July 4 that 88 yr old Jack Nicholson has booked a role in a film/series? → No
Technology
- Will Open AI officially announce before July 4 that it is postponing its IPO until 2027? → No
- Will Nvidia valuation touch $6 TRILLION anytime before June 30? Currently at $5.4T!!! → No
- Will the Govt allow Anthropic's Fable 5 back online before July 4? → Yes
World
- Will any ships passing thru the Strait of Hormuz actually strike a mine before July 4? → No
- With the temperature rising in the US, literally and figuratively, wiil DC top 100 degrees on July 4? → Yes
- Will the heat dome coming next week see Chicago with at least 5 days in a row of 90+ degrees? → Yes
- Will the Supreme Court rule against Trump's birthright citizenship executive order? → Yes
- Will Joe Biden still be kickin' on the 4th of July? → Yes
- With ceasefire clearly not working, will the talks between Iran & US be called off before July 4? → No
- Will a court decide b4 June 30 that giving Trump and family IRS immunity is unlawful? → No