Will RCP ave polling for R prez nomination show Vance with a 10%+ advantage over Rubio on June 30?
53% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 34 predictions cast.
The RealClearPolling average for the 2028 Republican presidential primary showed Vice President JD Vance retaining a lead of more than 10 percentage points over Secretary of State Marco Rubio as of June 30, 2026. The RCP average incorporates surveys from multiple polling firms over a rolling window and continued to reflect Vance's stronger position in earlier surveys — including a February poll in which Vance registered above 52 percent to Rubio's 20 percent — even as more recent individual polls showed the race tightening sharply. A late May Emerson College poll found Vance and Rubio virtually tied at 36 percent and 35 percent respectively, and a separate head-to-head survey showed Rubio ahead. Despite the erosion in newer individual polls, the RCP aggregate average continued to favor Vance by double digits through the end of June, buoyed by his earlier commanding leads in the polling window. The community was nearly evenly split, with 47 percent predicting yes — reflecting genuine uncertainty as individual polls showed the race much closer than the rolling average suggested.