I've noticed something about the way we predict things: we tend to bet on the story that's already being told, not the one still being written.
This week that habit cost the room three times.
94% of you thought Messi would score again against Switzerland, extending his Golden Boot chase against Mbappé the way he had all tournament — with goals. He didn't score. He finished the match with the Golden Boot lead anyway, on two assists instead.
I keep coming back to this one. We'd all been watching a guy score his way up a leaderboard, so we assumed scoring was the only door in the house. Messi just used a different one. The thing you've been tracking is rarely the only thing that's working. Rivers find new channels. Good players find new ways to matter.
82% of you figured this year's MLB All-Star Game — bragging rights only, nothing structurally on the line — would see viewership slide, the way "meaningless exhibition" usually goes. Instead it pulled the biggest All-Star audience since 2018, up 21% year over year. The stakes didn't change. Everything around the stakes did — a World Cup still humming in the background, a new Derby format, a summer that apparently wanted something to watch together. We reasoned from "low stakes" to "low interest," which sounds airtight until you remember people rarely tune in for the stakes. They tune in for the show.
And 81% of you had France beating Spain in the semifinal, riding the same "continue their dominant play" logic that had carried the whole tournament. Spain shut them out, 2-0. Form is a story about the past. A single knockout match has no obligation to keep telling it.
Three misses, one root: momentum feels like physics. It isn't. It's just what happened last time — and last time doesn't get a vote in what happens next.
This week's board is live. Let's see whose streak survives contact with it.
This week's resolutions
Culture
- Will investigators find Nancy Guthrie's body by 7/15? Abductors claim her death was accidental. → No
- Will Brittany be back in rehab before July 15? She's been getting some tough love from her sons. → No
- Will Tiger agree to a sit down interview before 7/15 to share his story? Seems like a good Oprah gig! → No
- Will The Invite's nationwide release this wknd exceed $10mm at the box office? → No
- Will David Ellison announce b4 July 15 who will run CNN when Paramount completes its takeover? → No
- Will the person who 'swatted' Pete Buttegieg be apprehended by July 15? → No
- Will The Odyssey, criticized by MAGA & Musk, score a Tomatometer rating of 90%+ when released on 7/17? → Yes
- With the WNBA in a bit of a mess right now, will Trump voice support for the league this week? → No
Markets
- Will Bitcoin continue its slide by closing below 55,000 any day b4 7/15? It's down 50% from its high! → No
- Will SpaceX close below it's IPO offering price of $135/share this Friday? → Yes
- IBM shares fell 25% to $211 after bad earnings rpt. Will it bounce back to finish the week above $230? → No
- Will the Dow fall below 50k anytime this week, just because? Currently trading around 53k. → No
- With Brent Crude back up in mid $80's/barrel with Hormuz closure, will it close the week above $90? → No
- Will Netfilx report double digit % growth in their quarterly revenue on Thurs? → Yes
- Will annual inflation top 4% in the June CPI report out Tuesday, July 14? → No
Politics
- Will the Senate pass the FY2027 defense bill that the Dems just blocked by this Friday? → No
- Will Trump have an 'expert' speak during his address to the nation about election integrity? → No
- Will Susan Collins publicly criticize ICE b4 Friday for the killing of a Columbia man in Maine? → Yes
- Will Darline Graham announce by Fri whether she'll enter the Aug. Senate primary in So Carolina? → No
- Will there be new calls this wk from Republican lawmaker/s for Speaker Johnson to be replaced? → No
- Will Elon Musk announce his financial support of Tucker Carlson's new political party before 7/15? → No
- RIP Lindsey Graham... Will the Gov of SC make his choice to fill the open Senate seat before Wed? → Yes
- Sounds like Bibi Netanyahu really wants a White House mtg with Trump. Will that happen before 7/15? → No
- Will the House disfunction continue this week with Speaker Johnson sending everyone home early again? → No
Sports
- After Sinner's early exit from French Open, will he bounce back to win Wimbledon? He's into 3rd round. → Yes
- Will YouTube star & failing golfer Bryson DeChambeau miss his 4th Major cut in a row at British Open? → No
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will Argentina spoil the chance for an all Europe final with a win over England? → Yes
- With only bragging rights at stake, will this year's MLB All Star Game see a YOY drop in viewership? → No
- Will the National League beat up on the American league in Tues's All Star gm with a 5+ run victory? → No
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will surging Norway beat the resilient England team on Saturday? → No
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will Messi score AGAIN vs Swiss on Sat, moving ahead of Mbappe for Golden Boot? → No
- WC PROGNOSTICATION: Will France continue their dominant play with a victory over Spain on Tuesday? → No
- Will #1 seed Jannik Sinner beat #2 Alexander Zverev in the Wimbledon finals on Sunday? → Yes
- Will the winner of this year's HR Derby, with new rules, hit at least 30 dingers in their 50+ swings? → Yes
- Will the US and Iran both acknowledge by Friday that the ceasefire is back on? → No
Technology
World
- Will Pele's 1958 World Cup jersey sell for $10mm or more in Sotheby's online auction later in June? → No
- Will Kevin Warsh publicly voice support by 7/15 for Lisa Cook, protected by SCOTUS ruling for now? → No
- Will the death toll from the devastating Venezuelan earthquake exceed 5,000? Now at 1,700. → Yes
- Will Ukraine knock out more Belarus radio towers b4 7/15? Russia's been using them for drone attacks. → No
- Will the Labour Party select Andy Burnham as the next Prime Minister of the UK before the end of July? → Yes
- Will the unstable building in Manhattan actually collapse, even partially, before 7/15? → No
- With Ukraine's stepped up attacks on Crimea, will Putin agree by 7/15 to engage in ceasefire talks? → No
- Will the new Strait of Hormuz kerfuffle be settled by this Friday, as in both US & Iran say its open? → No
- Will anyone else be indicted b4 7/15 for damaging the Reflecting Pool, criminal acts that rival J6?! → No
- Will the 3 eyewitnesses of the Houston ICE killing testify in the investigation by July 15? → No
- Will 7/17 Capacity Utilization rise above it's last reading of 76%, meaning factories are humming? → No