Will annual inflation top 4% in the June CPI report out Tuesday, July 14?

Annual inflation did not top 4% in the June CPI report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 14, 2026, that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 3.5% year-over-year in June, down from 4.2% in May and marking the first annual deceleration in five months. On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted index actually fell 0.4%, the largest one-month drop since April 2020, after rising 0.5% in May. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.6% annually from 2.9%, below economists' forecasts of 2.8%.

The primary driver was energy: the energy index fell 5.7% in June after climbing 3.9% in May, as a ceasefire between the United States and Iran eased fears of a sustained oil-price shock that had been pushing gasoline and energy costs higher earlier in the year.

The community majority (64% predicted inflation would top 4%) got this wrong. Forecasters and traders had been bracing for a hotter reading tied to energy-driven price pressure from the Iran conflict, but the June ceasefire reversed that dynamic just as the report was being compiled.