Will the new Strait of Hormuz kerfuffle be settled by this Friday, as in both US & Iran say its open?
91% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 34 predictions cast.
The Strait of Hormuz standoff between the U.S. and Iran remained unresolved through the market's Friday deadline in mid-July 2026, with the two governments continuing to dispute whether the waterway was open. Iran declared the strait closed and asserted control over shipping routes through it, while a maritime monitoring group reported the strait's southern route remained passable despite Iran's declaration. Traffic collapsed regardless: only about 22 ships crossed the strait on July 9, compared with 147 the day before the broader war began in February.
Tensions escalated after Iran struck commercial vessels in the strait on July 8, prompting the U.S. to strike Iranian territory and Iran to retaliate against U.S. bases in Gulf states. By July 14, the U.S. had reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, a step in the opposite direction from the joint "both sides say it's open" resolution the question required. Diplomatic channels stayed active behind the scenes, but no joint declaration materialized before the deadline. This closely tracked the related Iran-ceasefire question resolved the same day, both reflecting the collapse of the June 17 memorandum of understanding. Community sentiment (9% Yes) was highly confident the standoff would not be settled, and it wasn't.