With Ukraine's stepped up attacks on Crimea, will Putin agree by 7/15 to engage in ceasefire talks?

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not agree to ceasefire talks with Ukraine by July 15, despite Kyiv's intensified drone and missile strikes on Crimea and on Russian energy infrastructure. Reuters reported, citing sources close to the Kremlin, that Putin rejected a proposal from his own advisers to freeze the conflict along the current front line and rebuked them for raising it, insisting Russian forces would eventually capture the remainder of Ukraine's Donbas region. Rather than pushing Putin toward negotiations, Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian refineries and fuel depots reportedly hardened his resolve to keep fighting, with sources describing a "high probability" that Russia would escalate the war in the coming months. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had separately proposed a full ceasefire and direct talks between the two leaders, but Moscow issued no formal acceptance. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov maintained publicly that Russia remained open to a "peaceful settlement" while stressing Moscow's capacity to continue the campaign independently. This fits a recurring pattern in the war: repeated diplomatic overtures from Kyiv and Washington have so far failed to produce Russian engagement on ceasefire terms. The community anticipated this outcome strongly, with only 21 percent predicting Putin would agree to talks by the deadline.