August 21, 2026

The S&P 500 did not clear 7,900 in the week following its August 13, 2026 record close. The index set a fresh all-time closing high of 7,798.99 that Thursday, gaining about 0.65 percent as falling oil prices and softer-than-expected inflation data reinforced hopes the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady, according to CNBC. Rather than extending toward 7,900, the index retreated over the following days: it fell for three straight sessions through August 18, closing at 7,691.76 that day as tech and chip stocks sold off amid rising Treasury yields, then dropped further to about 7,641 on August 19 and remained in that range through August 20, per TheStreet's daily market coverage. The pullback was attributed to elevated 30-year Treasury yields reaching multi-decade highs, semiconductor weakness, and renewed inflation and government-debt concerns, none of which allowed the index to approach the 7,900 threshold before the question's resolution window closed. The community had leaned toward YES, with 64 percent of voters predicting the index would clear 7,900, but the outcome resolved NO, marking a gap between community sentiment and the actual market path.

North American theaters cleared the $150 million threshold over the August 14-16, 2026 weekend, led by Sony's "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," which held the No. 1 spot for a third consecutive weekend with roughly $70 million domestically, according to Variety and Deadline. The horror thriller "The End of Oak Street" opened in third place with about $21 million domestic, well behind pre-release tracking that had pointed toward a stronger debut. The two films alone accounted for roughly $91 million, with the rest of the weekend's holdover slate, including titles such as "PAW Patrol" and other returning releases, pushing the combined domestic gross past $150 million. Spider-Man's continued strength was central to the frame: the film crossed the $2 billion worldwide mark that same weekend, becoming one of the fastest films to reach that milestone and Sony's biggest release ever, which kept overall theater traffic elevated even as the new release underperformed. The result matched the community's expectation, with 73 percent of voters having predicted a YES outcome ahead of resolution.

The United States did not publicly endorse the Iran-Oman deal on Hormuz shipping routes before August 21, 2026. Iran's foreign ministry said in early August that Tehran had reached an understanding with Oman on a map of new transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and the two sides continued talks through mid-August, but the Trump administration withheld formal endorsement, insisting on unrestricted commercial navigation without Iranian tolls or any requirement that ships obtain Tehran's approval to transit. On August 17, 2026, a 60-day U.S.-Iran negotiation deadline set under a June memorandum of understanding expired without a wider peace deal, and President Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it got in the way of U.S. efforts to reopen the strait. Analysts noted most vessel owners would not use the Iran-Oman route without explicit U.S. authorization, leaving the practical reopening of Hormuz to commercial traffic contingent on Washington's approval, which had not been granted by the resolution date. The single community vote correctly predicted the United States would not endorse the deal within the window, matching the outcome.

The United Nations and humanitarian partners formally scaled up emergency appeals for Colombia's earthquake response before August 21, 2026. A 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck Colombia on August 10, 2026, killing more than 300 people, injuring over 4,600, and affecting an estimated 1.2 million people, with over 280,000 people displaced and more than 31,000 homes destroyed, concentrated in Risaralda, Valle del Cauca, Choco and Caldas departments. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies launched a CHF 25 million emergency appeal on August 12, and by mid-to-late August, UN humanitarian partners issued an addendum to Colombia's 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan seeking $148.1 million to reach 671,000 people, alongside separate agency appeals including a World Food Programme request for $23 million to assist 100,000 people and an IOM flash appeal covering shelter and health needs through February 2027. UN agencies reported scaling up aid operations for over 100,000 people by August 18. Three of the four community votes correctly predicted a formal UN emergency appeal would be launched before the deadline, matching the outcome.

WTI crude closed above $82 a barrel before August 21, 2026, after trading near $77 on August 7. Prices climbed back above $82 by August 10 amid growing doubt that Washington and Tehran would reach a deal over the Strait of Hormuz, and crude continued rising through mid-August on tight U.S. inventories and persistent Middle East shipping risk. By August 20, WTI futures had opened near $85.76, sharply above the early-August level, as the 60-day U.S.-Iran negotiation deadline expired without an agreement and President Trump threatened Oman over stalled Strait of Hormuz talks. The rally reflected concern that continued disruption to the Hormuz corridor, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply moves, could tighten global supply further. The two community votes on this question split evenly between YES and NO, so there was no majority prediction to compare against the outcome.

The Supreme Court did not rule in Donald Trump's favor on the merits of the $400 million White House ballroom dispute before August 21, 2026. Instead, Chief Justice John Roberts issued a one-page administrative stay on August 21 temporarily allowing construction to continue while the full Court considers the Trump administration's emergency request, without ruling on the underlying legal question or explaining his reasoning. The order came hours before lower-court rulings, which had found Trump lacked congressional approval for the project, would have forced a halt to aboveground work. The Justice Department said roughly 65 percent of the planned 90,000-square-foot ballroom, built on the site of the demolished East Wing, had already been completed, with crews working around the clock and about $200 million in private donations spent or committed. The case followed a district court's April order halting construction, briefly suspended and then upheld by an appeals panel. Community sentiment was 86 percent NO on a favorable Supreme Court ruling, correctly anticipating that only a temporary administrative stay, not a merits decision favoring Trump, would come before the deadline.

XRP closed above $1.12 before August 21, 2026, capping a sharp rally that lifted the token roughly 20 percent in 24 hours to around $1.18-$1.19 by August 20. The surge pushed XRP past the $1.10-$1.12 resistance band that had capped several rallies since early August, with momentum indicators including a daily RSI near 72 signaling overbought conditions. The rally was driven by the U.S. Treasury's roughly $4 billion in bond buybacks easing market liquidity, new SEC crypto exemption and safe-harbor rules removing cross-border trading hurdles, and Ripple's successful $275 million senior unsecured bond issuance, which bolstered institutional confidence in the token. The broader crypto market rallied in tandem, with total market capitalization approaching $2.45 trillion and Bitcoin clearing $72,000 for the first time since early June. The single community vote on this question predicted XRP would not reach $1.12, but the token closed well above that level, so the lone community forecast did not match the outcome.

Spain and Morocco did not announce a new, formal bilateral migration agreement before August 21, 2026. Instead, the two countries managed the Ceuta crisis through operational returns coordinated under existing frameworks, including their 1992 readmission treaty, after roughly 70,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into the Spanish enclave within a 48-hour span in late July and early August. Spanish authorities said more than 69,500 people were returned to Morocco, describing the cooperation as exemplary, while Madrid also installed a floating sea barrier and deployed additional police and military personnel to the enclave. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska emphasized intensified joint enforcement under existing cooperation rather than a newly signed pact, and reporting characterized Spain's response as leaning on its existing multibillion-dollar aid and cooperation arrangement with Rabat rather than a new accord. The crisis became an early test of the European Union's new Pact on Migration and Asylum. Two of the three community votes predicted a new agreement would be announced, but no new formal deal materialized within the window, so the majority community forecast did not match the outcome.

The Cboe Volatility Index stayed below the 20 threshold throughout the resolution window, sliding to an intraday low near 14.2 on August 14, 2026, its lowest reading of the year, as the S&P 500 climbed above 7,700 for the first time. Volatility remained subdued through August 21, with the VIX holding roughly between 14 and 16, well under levels seen during earlier 2026 spikes, including a March 27 reading of 31.65. The calm followed a record-breaking week of options trading in early August and steady corporate earnings that reassured investors despite unresolved Middle East tensions and a pending Federal Reserve decision. Financial commentators noted the unusual combination of record equity highs and rock-bottom volatility, though historical analysis cited by CNBC found such combinations rarely preceded sharp drawdowns over short horizons. All three community votes on this question predicted the index would close above 20, but it did not breach that level at any point before August 21, so the unanimous community forecast did not match the outcome.

U.S. spot ether ETFs recorded net outflows for the week ending Aug. 14, 2026, ending a streak of five consecutive weeks of net inflows. Every tracked ether ETF, including BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity's FETH, recorded exactly zero net flow on Aug. 14 itself, the first fully flat trading day for the category in more than nine months, according to KuCoin and CryptoRank. The pullback followed a stretch of strong inflows earlier in August, including at least one week that had drawn more than $100 million into the products, as investor demand cooled alongside broader crypto market volatility and a pause in fresh institutional allocations. The shift coincided with a weaker week for bitcoin ETFs as well, which posted their own multimillion-dollar net outflows around the same period. Total ether ETF net assets remained above $10 billion despite the outflow week. No community votes were recorded on this question, so there is no forecaster prediction to compare against the confirmed outcome.

The Japanese yen did not strengthen past 155 per dollar before Aug. 21, 2026. USD/JPY remained well above that level, trading in a range of roughly 158 to 160 through the week of Aug. 17-21, according to Federal Reserve H.10 foreign exchange data. The yen had rebounded from a weaker level near 163.87 in late July following a coordinated U.S.-Japan currency intervention in early August, with strategists at the time identifying 155 as the key threshold that would confirm the rally's staying power, according to Bloomberg. The dollar remained comparatively strong through mid-August despite the intervention, and the yen's recovery lost momentum before reaching that closely watched level. As a result, the exchange rate stayed in a weaker range for the yen than the question required to resolve yes. Both community forecasters had predicted the yen would close below 155, anticipating a stronger currency, but the exchange rate never reached that level, so the community's prediction did not match the actual outcome.

The House did not return early from its August 2026 recess to vote on stopgap government funding before Aug. 21; it had already passed its own continuing resolution before leaving Washington. The House approved a funding measure extending government funding through Dec. 4 by a vote of 220-205 in late July, with six Democrats joining Republicans, according to NPR. The Senate subsequently advanced a different version, passing a bipartisan stopgap by a 90-6-1 vote in early August to fund agencies through Dec. 11, according to Axios. Because the two chambers' bills differ, particularly over border-funding provisions that House Democrats sought to restrict, the chambers will need to reconcile the measures after lawmakers return from recess rather than the House cutting its break short. The House's August recess was expected to run into early September, with no emergency session called to address the funding differences before the Aug. 21 window closed. Community forecasters split evenly on this question, with half predicting an early return that did not occur, meaning the community was only partially aligned with the actual outcome.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump did not meet in person before Trump's Aug. 19, 2026 tariff deadline; instead the two leaders spoke twice by phone that week as Canada sought to avert new 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, according to BNN Bloomberg. Carney and Trump held calls on successive days, described by Carney's office as centered on ongoing trade negotiations, while Canadian trade minister Dominic LeBlanc and chief negotiator Janice Charette met separately in Washington with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, according to CP24. The 50% tariffs, covering products including cement and hockey sticks, had been set to take effect just after midnight on Aug. 19 under an earlier Trump executive order. Negotiations proceeded entirely through phone calls and staff-level meetings rather than a face-to-face summit between the two leaders in the run-up to the deadline. The lone community forecaster predicted an in-person meeting would occur, which did not match the actual outcome of remote, phone-based negotiations.

President Donald Trump did not name a new U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia before Aug. 21, 2026, leaving Jeanine Pirro in the post despite weeks of public criticism from the president. The dispute began after Pirro's office dropped vandalism charges tied to damage at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, which Trump said showed she had folded like an umbrella, according to Forbes. Trump told reporters in early August he had not made a determination on whether to remove her, and her status remained openly uncertain following a tense Oval Office meeting, according to NBC News. No successor was announced in the weeks that followed; Pirro instead worked to shore up her standing with the president, including public comments praising his federal law-enforcement push in Washington. The episode reflected broader friction between Trump and Justice Department appointees over the handling of politically sensitive prosecutions in the capital. Both community forecasters correctly predicted that no new appointment would be made before the deadline, matching the actual outcome.

Ether traded well above $2,000 in the days before Aug. 21, 2026, resolving this question in favor of a yes outcome. On the morning of Aug. 19, ETH changed hands near $1,917 as crypto markets reacted to a proposed SEC rule announcement, according to a Yahoo Finance market report. By Aug. 20, Ether had surged to open at $2,251.93, up 17.5% from the prior session, and traded as high as $2,286.60 intraday, according to Fortune's daily Ethereum price tracker. The rally followed a broader crypto market rebound tied to easing regulatory uncertainty after the SEC's proposed rulemaking, alongside renewed inflows into digital-asset products that had been thin earlier in the month. Ether's climb through the $2,000 level in the final days before the deadline pushed the token comfortably past the threshold the question required. Every community vote recorded on this market predicted no, anticipating Ether would stay below $2,000, but the token's late-week rally moved the price well past that mark, meaning the community's forecast did not match the actual outcome.

The CDC's weekly measles update covering data through Aug. 19-20, 2026, put the confirmed 2026 U.S. case total at 2,777, according to CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy), which reported the agency added 211 new cases in that update. That is an increase of 312 cases from the 2,465 reported on Aug. 6, and it exceeds the 2,650 threshold in the market question.

The rise was driven largely by outbreaks in Pennsylvania and Ohio, which together accounted for roughly 84% of new cases added in the prior week's update; Pennsylvania has since become the nation's third-largest state outbreak behind Utah and South Carolina, with Lancaster County alone accounting for about half its cases. CDC data cited by CIDRAP show 94% of 2026 cases are unvaccinated or of unknown vaccination status, and 94% are linked to one of roughly three dozen active outbreaks, consistent with under-vaccinated community clusters rather than isolated imported cases.

The 2026 total had already surpassed the 2,289 cases reported for all of 2025, itself the highest annual U.S. count since 1991, and a federal panel and the Pan American Health Organization were reported to be reviewing whether the country will retain its year-2000 measles elimination status later in 2026.

On Predict Six, the market's single recorded vote (100% "yes") happened to match the outcome, but with only one voter the result carries no meaningful statistical weight.

Canada did not announce retaliatory measures before August 21, 2026. Washington's 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, covering roughly $20 billion in imports, had been set to take effect August 19, and Prime Minister Mark Carney had repeatedly said everything's on the table if talks with Washington failed, while also stating Canada would not retaliate before the tariffs actually took hold. Hours before the deadline, President Trump announced a three-day pause on the tariffs, saying the two countries had reached the outline of a trade deal covering market access, economic security commitments and digital trade, subject to finalizing documents. Carney confirmed the suspension would run through August 22 and called it substantial progress, while cautioning that important work remained. Because the tariffs were paused rather than imposed, the retaliation Carney had threatened never materialized by the question's resolution date. Community sentiment leaned toward expecting retaliation, with 65% of 26 voters predicting yes, but the last-minute pause and deal announcement meant the majority prediction did not match the actual outcome.

Bitcoin closed above $68,000 well before the August 21, 2026 deadline, extending a rally that began in early August. After trading near $64,000 in the first week of the month, bitcoin pushed steadily higher through mid-August. By August 20, 2026, it opened at $69,289 and climbed intraday to roughly $71,970-$71,980, a surge attributed to President Trump's push for Congress to pass the Clarity Act, legislation intended to clarify whether cryptocurrencies are regulated as securities or commodities, along with falling long-term Treasury yields. The rally continued into August 21, when bitcoin opened at $73,013 and reached as high as $77,692 intraday, driven further by a Treasury announcement about buying back long-term debt. Ethereum rose in tandem, trading above $2,400 by August 21. The single community vote on this question predicted no, anticipating bitcoin would fail to reach $68,000, but the cryptocurrency's sustained rally through mid-to-late August proved that prediction wrong.

Colombian authorities did not issue a formal declaration ending search-and-rescue operations in Cali before August 21, 2026. A magnitude 7.4-7.5 earthquake struck Colombia's Choco department on August 10, 2026, killing more than 300 people and leaving over 260 reported missing, with Cali among the hardest-hit cities due to building collapses. Search teams, including U.S. and Spanish delegations and Mexican rescue specialists, entered what officials described as a final phase of search operations around August 13, concentrating on roughly 56 severely damaged buildings. By August 17, coverage described crews shifting focus toward clearing rubble and recovering remaining bodies as the broader disaster response moved toward housing and recovery efforts. That shift in operational focus was reported as a transition rather than as an official announcement that search-and-rescue work had concluded, and the large number of people still unaccounted for meant authorities stopped short of declaring the effort over. Community sentiment leaned toward yes on this question, with 67% of three voters expecting a formal end declaration, but that did not occur, putting the majority vote at odds with the actual outcome.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on August 7, 2026, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif putting their names to a mutual-defense pact modeled on NATO's Article 5, under which an armed attack on one signatory is treated as an attack on all three. Government statements and briefings released around the signing described the agreement's broad outlines, including provisions for Saudi financing, Turkish defense technology and Pakistani manpower, and follow-up reporting through mid-August detailed the pact's strategic and military implications in depth. However, none of the three governments published the agreement's full legal text in the two weeks following the signing. Coverage through August 21, 2026, continued to rely on official summaries and analyst interpretation rather than a released treaty document, consistent with common practice for defense pacts whose complete terms are kept from public disclosure. The lone community vote on this question predicted yes, anticipating publication of the full text, but that did not occur, meaning the sole voter's prediction did not match the outcome.

Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark was assessed her eighth technical foul of the season on Aug. 8 during a game against the Chicago Sky, triggering the WNBA's rule that automatically suspends a player for one game upon an eighth technical in a season. The call came in the third quarter after Clark, forced out of bounds on a drive, made incidental contact with an official following a bump from defender Natasha Cloud.

The Fever appealed immediately after their 90-86 win over the Sky, and the WNBA reversed the call less than two hours later, citing the accidental nature of the contact. The reversal wiped the technical from Clark's record, dropping her total back to seven and clearing her to play the Fever's next game against the New York Liberty without missing time.

Because the technical was actually assessed and stood before the league's reversal, the question resolved yes: Clark did reach eight technical fouls, even though the penalty was ultimately overturned. The community had leaned toward no at 33% yes, expecting either no eighth technical or a swift, uncontested reversal, but the initial call registered before it was rescinded.

Bitcoin did not close below $60,000 at any point before August 21, 2026. After dipping into the low $60,000s in early August, when price trends were described as uniformly negative, the cryptocurrency stabilized and then rallied rather than continuing to fall. Bitcoin traded at $63,558 on the morning of August 13, 2026, holding above the $60,000 threshold, and climbed further through the following week. By August 20, prices surged after President Trump pushed Congress to pass the Clarity Act, legislation intended to clarify whether cryptocurrencies are regulated as securities or commodities, with a decline in long-term Treasury yields providing additional support. Rather than approaching $60,000, bitcoin was trading well above $69,000 by that point and kept climbing into the resolution date. Community sentiment on this question leaned correctly: 44% of 25 voters predicted bitcoin would close below $60,000, meaning a majority of voters anticipated the actual outcome that it would not happen.

Google's Pixel 11 lineup went on sale across the United States on August 20, 2026, one day before this question's resolution deadline. Google unveiled the Pixel 11, Pixel 11 Pro, Pixel 11 Pro XL and the foldable Pixel 11 Pro Fold at its Made by Google event in New York City on August 12, 2026, and opened preorders that same day. General retail availability followed eight days later, with the devices shipping through Google's own store as well as Best Buy, Verizon and other carriers on August 20. The roughly one-week gap between the announcement and street availability mirrored the schedule Google used for the Pixel 10 series the previous year. Retailers had trade-in and gift-card promotions active by the August 20 ship date, consistent with the phones already being purchasable rather than still pending release. Community voting on this question was evenly split, with 50% of four voters predicting yes, reflecting genuine uncertainty at the time about whether Google would confirm and hit a firm on-sale date before August 21.

SpaceX had not launched NASA's CRS-35 cargo mission to the International Space Station before August 21, 2026. NASA's mission listing targeted the flight for no earlier than late August 2026, with tracking sources projecting a launch around August 31 from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station aboard a Falcon 9 carrying a Cargo Dragon spacecraft loaded with science experiments and station supplies. The mission is the 35th flight under SpaceX's Commercial Resupply Services contract with NASA. It followed CRS-34, which launched May 15, 2026, after weather-related delays and docked at the station's Harmony module two days later; no cargo mission flew between CRS-34 and the question's resolution date. Launch dates for ISS resupply missions are routinely adjusted based on station traffic, weather and payload readiness, and CRS-35's schedule slipped into the final days of August, past the question's cutoff. The community voted 100 percent yes on two votes, anticipating a launch before August 21, but the mission had not flown by that date, another case where a small sample of community votes diverged from the actual outcome.

No congressional committee had announced a hearing specifically on the declassified Comey-era FBI memos by August 21, 2026. On August 5, the White House's Government Transparency Task Force released memos detailing a previously undisclosed FBI counterintelligence investigation, codenamed "Oxferd Comma," opened after James Comey's May 2017 firing to examine whether Trump was "directed by, controlled by, and/or coordinated activities with" Russia. The memos showed the case was closed in April 2019, shortly after Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report found no established coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia. An administration official said the task force was forwarding declassified material to Congress as it was identified, and House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan discussed the documents publicly on August 16, characterizing them as evidence of FBI weaponization, but no committee scheduled or announced a dedicated hearing on the memos in the two-and-a-half weeks after their release. The community was evenly split at 50 percent yes on two votes, reflecting genuine uncertainty that ultimately resolved toward no formal hearing announcement by the deadline.

Trump's new 50 percent tariffs on a range of Canadian goods did not take effect as scheduled on August 19, 2026. Trump had signed proclamations on July 20 imposing the tariffs, covering close to $20 billion in annual Canadian imports including dairy, automotive and alcohol-sector products such as wine, hockey sticks and cement, in response to Canadian trade policies. Less than two hours before the tariffs were due to take effect, Trump announced he was pausing the 50 percent tariffs for three days, citing a last-minute trade deal reached with Canada that required time for "finalization of documents." Reports from Forbes and NBC News confirmed the pause, describing it as an eleventh-hour reprieve after weeks of negotiation between Washington and Ottawa. The delay meant the tariffs, while signed and scheduled, were not actually in force on the date in question. The community was evenly split at 50 percent yes heading into resolution, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the deadline would hold, which the last-minute pause ultimately bore out in favor of no.

No European government formally announced a new transfer of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine before August 21, 2026, despite mounting pressure following President Volodymyr Zelensky's warnings that Ukraine's stockpile was nearly exhausted. Speaking in Belgrade on August 8, Zelensky said the United States had agreed to monthly Patriot interceptor deliveries but that the amount would fall short of Ukraine's needs, and said Kyiv was seeking additional missiles from Germany, Poland, Norway, the Netherlands and Israel. On August 17, CNN reported from inside a Ukrainian Patriot battery that had sat with empty launch tubes for six weeks, with crew members saying they lacked interceptors to fire even as Russian missile attacks intensified. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker also said earlier in August that Washington would not permit Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors domestically. European governments were reported to be scrambling to locate additional missiles ahead of an anticipated winter offensive, but none had made a formal transfer announcement tied specifically to this shortage by the resolution date. The community voted 100 percent yes on just two votes, anticipating a European transfer would be announced, but the outcome resolved no, a case where the small sample of community votes diverged from the actual result.

Bravo had not officially announced a new Real Housewives city or spinoff by August 21, 2026. Entertainment outlets reported around August 18 that the network was reportedly developing a Real Housewives of Montana series, with the production team behind Real Housewives of Beverly Hills and Real Housewives of Orange County said to be scouting affluent women in Gallatin County, including the Big Sky area and the private Yellowstone Club. The reporting was explicit that Bravo had "not officially confirmed the project," with producers said to be aiming to lock a cast by the end of 2026 and any filming not expected to begin until early 2027 at the soonest. No press release, casting call, or official network statement formalized a new city or spinoff franchise before the resolution date. The report followed a summer in which Bravo had already renewed Real Housewives of Rhode Island and ordered a Vanderpump Rules spinoff, keeping speculation about further expansion active among fans. The community leaned toward a no resolution, with only 40 percent voting yes on five votes, correctly anticipating that no formal Bravo announcement would land before August 21.

The Qatari-donated Boeing 747 serving as Trump's new Air Force One was not confirmed to have completed its additional security fixes by August 21, 2026. On July 20, Trump announced the aircraft, informally called the VC-25 Bridge Aircraft, would be taken offline for a "maxed out" security refit, including anti-missile defense systems, after a New York Times report found the jet lacked countermeasures standard on presidential aircraft. Trump said the work would "take about a month," meaning completion was not expected until roughly mid-to-late August at the earliest. Aviation and defense analysts publicly questioned whether that compressed schedule allowed sufficient time to integrate and test sophisticated defensive systems to military standards. No government or contractor statement confirmed the retrofit's completion as of the resolution date. The jet's original conversion, led by contractor L3Harris, had already drawn scrutiny over an accelerated timeline, and Senate Democrats had separately sought answers from the Air Force about the conversion process. The community leaned toward a no resolution, with only 29 percent voting yes on 42 votes, correctly anticipating that the fixes would not be wrapped up within August.

No Real Housewives of Atlanta cast member announced an exit before August 21, 2026. Casting speculation surfaced online in early August claiming cast member Shamea Morton Mwangi had been dropped from the show and that former star NeNe Leakes would rejoin for Season 18. On August 3, Bravo executive producer Andy Cohen addressed the rumors directly on his SiriusXM show, Andy Cohen Live, stating, "There are a lot of casting rumors online, which came out over the weekend, and I'm gonna tell you that they're not true." Cohen went further, telling listeners the Season 17 cast would return largely intact for Season 18, saying, "If you want a preview of next season of Atlanta, look at this cast." No cast member subsequently confirmed a departure before the resolution date. The rumor cycle coincided with the Season 17 finale airing August 2 and led into the show's reunion special later that month. The community leaned toward a "yes" resolution at only 33 percent on three votes, with the majority correctly anticipating that no exit announcement would occur, matching the eventual no outcome.

Apple had not sent invitations for a September iPhone event before August 21, 2026. Reporting from MacRumors and Forbes indicated Apple was expected to announce its event date and send invitations around August 26, 2026, roughly two weeks ahead of an anticipated September 9 keynote, consistent with the company's recent-year pattern of issuing invites exactly 14 days before the event. As of the question's resolution date, Apple had only made visible preparations, such as staging at Apple Park, without a formal invitation or announced date having gone out. The expected event is anticipated to unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, a first foldable iPhone, and new Apple Watches, and would mark the first Apple keynote led by incoming CEO John Ternus following Tim Cook's planned retirement on September 1, 2026. Both recorded community votes predicted Yes (100%), anticipating an earlier invitation, which did not match the actual outcome — the invitation was expected to follow Apple's typical late-August timing rather than arriving before August 21.

The Federal Communications Commission's ban on foreign-made advanced robotic devices did not appear in the Federal Register before August 21, 2026. The FCC issued the ban through Public Notice DA-26-786 on July 28, 2026, adding foreign-produced humanoid robots, quadrupeds, autonomous mobile robots, and other connected robotic devices over 4.4 pounds to its Covered List under the Secure and Trusted Communications Networks Act, according to NPR and legal-industry reporting. The action took effect immediately upon the Public Notice's release and barred new foreign robot models from receiving the FCC equipment authorization needed for import or sale in the United States. Covered List additions of this kind, however, are implemented through FCC public notices rather than through the formal Federal Register rulemaking process, so no corresponding Federal Register entry followed by the resolution date. The measure, aimed chiefly at Chinese manufacturers, excluded fixed industrial and medical robotic arms and devices already authorized for U.S. sale, and China publicly objected to the action. Both recorded community votes predicted Yes (100%), which did not match the actual No outcome, since the ban took effect through a different regulatory mechanism than the one specified in the question.

Meta released Muse Glimmer, a 30-billion-parameter open-weight AI model, on Aug. 10, 2026, publishing the model weights on Hugging Face under a permissive Apache 2.0 license. By Aug. 17, Glimmer had risen into Hugging Face's top three trending models, reflecting a rapid wave of developer downloads and testing following the launch.

Glimmer is a dense causal transformer distilled from Meta's larger, proprietary Muse Spark model, built for local, agentic tasks such as tool use, coding, and multi-step workflows that run entirely offline on a single consumer GPU. Its open licensing, compact footprint, and same-day integrations with widely used local-inference tools including llama.cpp, Ollama, LM Studio, and MLX drove quick adoption among developers. TechCrunch and Bloomberg both covered the launch on Aug. 10, describing strong initial interest in a locally runnable, open-weight model from Meta.

The release is part of Meta's broader "personal intelligence" strategy. CEO Mark Zuckerberg framed the open-weight approach as a way to distribute AI capability widely rather than centralize it, and used the launch to argue for lighter U.S. regulation of open-source AI. It marked Meta's first fully open model release since it shifted the Muse family to proprietary licensing in April 2026.

Predict Six's own community betting on this question was not informative: only two votes were cast, split evenly 50-50, offering no meaningful signal ahead of resolution.

SpaceX stock (ticker SPCX) did not close above $150 before August 21, 2026. Shares closed at roughly $134 on August 21, having climbed back above their $135 IPO price on August 10 for the first time in weeks, according to CNBC. The rebound followed a volatile stretch tied to insider-share lockup expirations: more than 900 million shares became eligible to trade around August 6, followed by roughly 319 million more around August 20, adding selling pressure even as the company's second-quarter results and rising launch demand supported the shares. The stock's 52-week range spanned roughly $105 to $226, but it stayed well short of the $150 threshold through the resolution date. Analysts, including at Citi, raised 2026-2027 forecasts after the Q2 results, but staggered lockup unlocks weighed on the share price in the weeks before resolution. The community majority (74% voting No, with 26% Yes) correctly anticipated the stock would not reach $150, matching the actual outcome.

No Ugandan troops had arrived in Gaza before August 21, 2026. Uganda's parliament voted on August 6, 2026, to authorize deployment of Uganda People's Defence Forces personnel to the U.S.-backed International Stabilization Force for Gaza, joining Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Indonesia, and Albania as contributing nations to the roughly 20,000-strong force proposed by the Trump administration's Board of Peace. The parliamentary vote approved deployment "in principle," but the size, timetable, and command structure of Uganda's contingent had not been finalized, and no movement of troops to Gaza followed in the two weeks before the question resolved. The stabilization force, to be led by U.S. Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, was still being assembled from multiple contributing countries, a process that typically takes additional weeks after legislative authorization before troops actually deploy on the ground. The sole recorded community vote predicted a 100% Yes outcome, which did not match reality: troops were authorized in principle but had not arrived by the resolution date.

The United States and Canada did not finalize a trade deal before Trump's August 19, 2026 tariff deadline. As the deadline arrived, Trump paused a threatened 50% tariff increase on Canadian goods — which would have hit roughly $20 billion of exports including steel, aluminum, autos, cement, and hockey sticks — and extended talks for several more days, citing a "pending" agreement rather than a signed one. Prime Minister Mark Carney said the two countries had made "substantial progress" but that "important work" remained, and negotiators continued drafting final treaty text after the original deadline passed. The pause capped months of on-and-off tariff threats and retaliation between Washington and Ottawa. Reports indicated tariff relief on steel, aluminum, and autos was under discussion, but no completed agreement had been announced by the question's August 21 resolution time. The community majority (57% voting No, with 43% Yes) correctly anticipated that no deal would be reached by the deadline, matching the actual outcome.

Venezuela's government and opposition-aligned negotiators, meeting under U.S. mediation, did not announce a specific election date before August 21, 2026. Talks that opened in early August focused first on rebuilding institutions rather than scheduling a vote: on August 12, the two sides reached an agreement to overhaul the nomination process for Venezuela's Supreme Court (TSJ), which Caracas Chronicles described as the first tangible outcome of the negotiations. Changes to the National Electoral Council (CNE) and a firm election timetable were explicitly left for a later stage, with opposition figures citing a target of a new CNE by November and a reconstituted TSJ by year's end. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, asked directly about timing, said the transition would take "not years, but certainly months and weeks," declining to commit to a date and listing preconditions including press freedom, multi-party participation, and an electoral commission capable of an accurate count. The absence of a firm date reflects the sequencing negotiators chose: institutional reforms first, election scheduling later. The community vote was evenly split at 50% Yes, showing no clear consensus ahead of resolution, and the outcome (No election date announced) matched half the electorate's expectation.

During the live eviction episode of 'Big Brother' Season 28 on August 20, 2026, houseguest Kamu Kirk was evicted by an 8-1 vote, not Dee Valladares. Rick Devens used a Diamond Power of Veto to remove Valladares, his ally, from the eviction block and replaced her with Kirk, an MMA fighter who had been a target after being accused of spreading information within the house. Only fellow houseguest Lala voted against evicting Kirk, casting the lone vote to remove Haley instead. After the eviction, Valladares went on to win the subsequent Head of Household competition, her second HOH of the season, and was tasked with naming nominees ahead of the following nomination ceremony. The community unanimously predicted Valladares would be evicted, but Devens' veto use kept her in the house, so the community's forecast did not match the actual outcome.

Jax Taylor and Brittany Cartwright had not reached a divorce settlement by August 21, 2026, two years after Cartwright filed for divorce in August 2024. A settlement conference in late July 2026 ended with both sides still far apart on outstanding property and financial issues, and Taylor's attorney accused Cartwright of arriving unprepared and failing to provide necessary financial records, delaying meaningful negotiations. A representative for Cartwright disputed that characterization, telling reporters she had participated in good faith and remained committed to reaching a fair resolution. The couple had previously finalized a separate child custody and support agreement in March 2026 covering their son, Cruz, including restrictions on alcohol and drug use during Jax's parenting time, but that agreement was distinct from the broader divorce settlement covering shared finances and property. The community was evenly split on this outcome, so its forecast did not clearly anticipate or miss the result.

The multistate Cyclospora outbreak linked to Taylor Farms de Mexico iceberg lettuce grew through August 2026 but had not reached 20 states by the question's August 21 deadline. The Washington Post reported the outbreak had expanded to 15 states as of August 4, and by the CDC's investigation update referencing data through August 13, the count stood at 17 states, with roughly 10,930 illnesses, 454 hospitalizations and two deaths reported in Michigan. Taylor Farms had recalled all iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico on July 17 after epidemiologic and traceback data identified the lettuce as the contamination source. Many of the illnesses counted in later updates had onset dates preceding the recall, as case interviews and lab confirmations lagged behind actual infections. The outbreak was described by health officials as the largest known Cyclospora outbreak on record, but its state count plateaued in the high teens rather than crossing 20 within the question's window. The community unanimously predicted the outbreak would top 20 states, but the actual state count stayed below that threshold, so the community's forecast did not match the outcome.

The National Hurricane Center named Tropical Storm Cristobal on August 12, 2026, making it the third named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, well ahead of the question's August 21 deadline. Cristobal formed several hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph, following earlier-season storms Arthur and Bertha, both of which had affected Texas. Forecasters said Cristobal was expected to remain over the open Atlantic, posing no threat to Florida, the Caribbean or the continental United States, and to weaken before dissipating days later. A fourth storm, potentially to be named Dolly, was already being watched by the Hurricane Center around the same time. The formation of Cristobal came close to the historical average date for a season's third Atlantic storm, which the Hurricane Center's climatology places near early August. The community unanimously predicted this outcome, and the result matched that expectation.

President Trump had approved an emergency declaration for Washington state's wildfires on August 4, 2026, unlocking initial FEMA assistance for fires including the Old Trails, Autumn Lane and Fairview blazes near Spokane, which together burned more than 10,000 acres and destroyed at least 700 structures. As of August 21, he had not additionally granted a major disaster declaration, the separate and more extensive designation that provides individual assistance for residents to rebuild. On August 18, Governor Bob Ferguson and Rep. Michael Baumgartner sent Trump a letter requesting a meeting to discuss Washington's forthcoming formal request for that major disaster declaration, indicating the request was still being prepared rather than approved. Officials said the major disaster request was likely to be submitted in the coming weeks, with a federal decision potentially taking months. The community was evenly split on this outcome, so its forecast did not clearly anticipate or miss the result.

Israel's security cabinet did not hold a formal vote on the Board of Peace's 15-point Gaza plan before August 21, 2026. Instead, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly stated on August 9 that Israel had not agreed to the US-backed proposal, rejecting its terms rather than bringing it to a cabinet vote. Netanyahu insisted there would be no Israeli withdrawal from Gaza until Hamas fully disarms, a position at odds with the plan's sequencing. The rejection followed weeks of ambiguity after President Trump announced the broader agreement on July 30, and it stoked visible tension between Jerusalem and Washington over implementation. This is distinct from a separate, earlier cabinet vote in late July that approved limited entry of an International Stabilization Force into Gaza under a related 20-point framework; that vote did not constitute action on the 15-point plan referenced in this question. The community was evenly split on the outcome, with half predicting a vote would occur, so the result did not clearly validate or contradict the group's expectations.

Zambia's Electoral Commission declared incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema the winner of the country's presidential election on August 18, 2026, well before the question's August 21 deadline. Hichilema, of the United Party for National Development, won a second five-year term with roughly 60-61 percent of the vote, defeating Brian Mundubile of the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity, who took about 38-39 percent. The August 13 general election also selected parliament and local government representatives amid heightened political tension, and counting was briefly suspended on August 14 after security incidents before resuming. Opposition figures raised rigging allegations and there was a disputed raid on Mundubile's home, but the commission proceeded to certify the result within the expected window. Hichilema, first elected in 2021, said his second term would focus on economic growth, job creation and the cost of living. The community's forecast, with both voters predicting the commission would declare a winner before August 21, matched the actual outcome.

The United States had not announced new strikes on Iran by August 21, 2026, despite President Trump's warnings of a "harsh new attack" if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed to shipping. As of August 18, Trump said no talks were underway or scheduled with Iran after a 60-day deadline to reach a deal had expired, while Tehran maintained the strait would stay shut and warned the standoff could be "prolonged."

Trump also threatened action against Oman over its role in mediation efforts, and indirect contacts between Washington and Tehran reportedly continued through Pakistani intermediaries, but no new US military strikes on Iran were announced in this window. The standoff kept oil prices elevated and shipping through the strait disrupted. This followed an earlier round of US strikes on Iranian military targets in July, part of an active US-Iran conflict that had been ongoing for months.

Community voting was nearly evenly split, with 52 percent predicting new strikes would be announced. The actual outcome was NO, meaning the narrow community majority was wrong.

Walmart raised its full-year sales and profit outlook when it reported fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 20, 2026. Revenue for the quarter ended July 31 climbed 5.9% to $187.94 billion, and adjusted earnings of 81 cents per share beat analyst estimates of 74 cents. The retailer raised its full-year net sales growth forecast to a range of 4% to 5%, up from its prior guidance of 3.5% to 4.5%, and lifted its full-year earnings-per-share outlook to $2.80–$2.87.

The upgrade was aided by roughly $2.9 billion in tariff refunds that Walmart said it plans to pass on to customers through lower prices. Despite the raised guidance, US same-store sales growth of 2.6% fell short of the 3.5% Wall Street had expected, and Walmart shares fell about 10% following the report as investors focused on the comparable-sales miss.

Community voting unanimously predicted Walmart would raise its outlook, matching the actual outcome. The mixed market reaction underscored that an improved full-year forecast did not fully offset investor concerns about underlying sales growth.

Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast on August 9, 2026, striking the facility with a drone. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry confirmed a fire broke out at dawn and was extinguished by Aramco firefighting teams, with no injuries reported. The Iran-backed Houthis said the strike was retaliation for Saudi drone incursions into Yemen's Saada and Hajjah governorates.

Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said the attack, along with other recent strikes on company facilities, had caused some production interruptions but no material operational or financial impact, and that operations would be restored quickly. The strike came amid a broader escalation of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure that summer, which also included a claimed attack on a Saudi oil tanker earlier in August, as the group opened what analysts described as a new front tied to the wider US-Iran conflict.

Community voting favored this outcome, with 67 percent predicting YES, correctly anticipating that the Houthis would strike another Saudi facility before the resolution date.

Owners of Coldcard hardware wallets who lost bitcoin to a firmware exploit had not filed suit against manufacturer Coinkite by August 21, 2026, even though roughly $116 million (about 1,816 bitcoin) had been drained from more than 5,200 wallet addresses since late July. The vulnerability, present in Coldcard firmware since 2021, caused devices to bypass their hardware randomness chip during key generation, making some seed phrases predictable to attackers.

Attorney Thomas Braziel of 117 Partners said he was studying potential product-liability and class-action claims and was gathering information from victims internationally, while a Brazilian user reported filing a police complaint rather than a civil lawsuit. Coinkite has assisted affected users but has not offered compensation, and it reversed a policy of automatically deleting customer records, citing anticipated legal obligations. Legal experts were divided on the company's liability, with some seeing a credible basis for negligence claims and others doubting it.

Community voting leaned heavily toward a lawsuit being filed, with 72 percent predicting YES, but no suit had materialized by the resolution date, meaning the community majority was wrong.

US-backed political transition talks between Venezuela's interim government and opposition representatives opened in Caracas on August 6, 2026, without Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, and she remained excluded through the question's August 21 resolution date. Machado was left out because Washington designated the 2015 National Assembly as the formal negotiating channel, and she does not hold a seat in that body; former lawmaker Dinorah Figuera led the opposition delegation instead.

Machado, who has lived in hiding inside Venezuela, said beforehand that she would not seek to take part in the talks' "design, development and operation," though she indicated she would not obstruct the process. No invitation to Machado was reported in the weeks following the talks' opening. All community votes on this question predicted she would not be invited, correctly anticipating the outcome. Her exclusion has been a recurring point of contention in coverage of the talks, with critics arguing that sidelining Venezuela's most prominent opposition figure undercuts the process's credibility, even as Machado publicly maintained that a democratic transition would still serve US and regional interests.

The Atlantic Ocean remained without a hurricane through August 21, 2026, extending one of the quietest starts to a hurricane season in decades. The basin had produced only tropical storms Arthur and Bertha and the short-lived Cristobal by that point, with none strengthening to hurricane status. Meteorologists attributed the lull chiefly to a developing El Niño pattern, which increases wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and suppresses storm organization, even as sea surface temperatures ran slightly above normal.

As of August 21, only four hurricane seasons in the satellite era — 1988, 1984, 1977 and 1967 — had started more slowly than 2026, making it the slowest start since 1988. Forecasters cautioned the quiet stretch was likely temporary, since the Atlantic typically becomes more active in the back half of August ahead of the season's mid-September peak, and NOAA had already forecast a below-normal but not inactive season.

Community voting on this question was evenly split at 50 percent, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the hurricane-free streak would hold through the resolution date. The streak did continue through August 21.

Novak Djokovic was eliminated from the Cincinnati Open in the second round, well short of the quarterfinals. He lost to unseeded Argentine qualifier Thiago Agustín Tirante 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 on August 16, 2026, in a match lasting two hours and 44 minutes. Djokovic struggled with Cincinnati's heat and humidity and cited physical issues afterward, calling the match "not an enjoyable" one. The defeat ended his run at a tournament he has won three times, in 2018, 2020 and 2023, and was considered a significant ATP Tour upset given his ranking and history at the event.

All five community votes on this question predicted Djokovic would reach the quarterfinals. He instead lost his opening match of the tournament, meaning the community's unanimous prediction was wrong. The result added to a broader narrative about Djokovic's physical struggles and inconsistent form on hard courts later in his career, following similarly early exits at other 2026 events.

The Nasdaq Composite, which had closed at a record 27,086.81 in early June 2026, did not return to the 27,000 level before the question's August 21, 2026 resolution date. On August 20, 2026, the index fell roughly 1%, or about 264 points, to close at 26,067.17, according to Yahoo Finance's market coverage, as Treasury yields climbed and Walmart's disappointing earnings outlook weighed on major indexes that day. The Nasdaq's failure to reclaim record territory reflected weeks of volatility tied to rising long-term bond yields and mixed corporate earnings through mid-August. On August 4, 2026, the date referenced in the question, the index had closed at 26,585, itself below the June record, and it did not close above 27,000 again in the more than two weeks that followed before the question resolved. Community sentiment was evenly split at 50% on whether the index would reclaim 27,000, and the actual outcome landed on the no side of that split, with the index closing roughly 900 points below the threshold at resolution.

The FDA approved Keytruda (pembrolizumab) and Keytruda Qlex, each combined with Padcev (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv), as neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment for adults with muscle-invasive bladder cancer, with Merck, Astellas and Pfizer announcing the decision around July 10-13, 2026. The approval extended the combination's use to all patients eligible for bladder-removal surgery (cystectomy), not only those unable to tolerate cisplatin chemotherapy, making it the first platinum-free regimen cleared for this broader muscle-invasive bladder cancer population. Because the approval was announced in mid-July, well ahead of the August 17 decision-date window referenced in the question, the treatment was already approved by the time that date arrived. The decision was based on trial data showing patients on the Keytruda-Padcev combination had improved progression-free and overall survival compared with standard cisplatin-based chemotherapy given before surgery. Community sentiment on the question was evenly split at 50% predicting approval, and the approval had, in fact, already been granted by the time of resolution, consistent with the yes side of that split.

Zambia's Electoral Commission declared incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema the winner of the August 13, 2026 presidential election on August 18, 2026, with Hichilema receiving roughly 2.97 million votes (about 61%) to opposition candidate Brian Mundubile's 1.86 million votes (about 38%), according to Al Jazeera's coverage of the declaration. Mundubile did not concede after the official announcement; Al Jazeera reported there was no immediate reaction from him, and his camp had alleged irregularities during counting, including claims that military personnel controlled some tallying centers and that result forms went missing in parts of the country. The election was also marred by reports of violence, including a raid in which authorities arrested 11 people, among them opposition figures, amid gunfire, as reported by US News ahead of the final declaration. As of the question's August 21 resolution date, Mundubile had issued no formal concession statement. All community votes on this question (100%) had predicted Mundubile would concede before that date, an expectation that did not match the outcome.

On the August 20, 2026 live-eviction episode of "Big Brother 28," Angela Murray was one of three nominees, alongside Kamu Kirk and Haley Thogmartin, after Rick Devens used the Diamond Power of Veto to remove Dee Valladares from the block. In the "BB Blockbuster" competition that followed, Angela won safety and was pulled off the block before the live vote, according to Gold Derby's episode recap and Parade's eviction coverage. Kamu Kirk was evicted instead by an 8-1 house vote. It marked the first time in 39 days that Angela had faced possible eviction, but she avoided a vote entirely by winning the competition rather than surviving a jury or house decision. Her exit from the block preserved her position as one of the season's longest-standing houseguests without having faced a live elimination vote. Community sentiment on this question was evenly split at 50% predicting eviction, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which of the three nominees would ultimately go home given the last-minute veto swap and the Blockbuster twist that determined the final outcome.

CBS's "Big Brother 28" aired its Thursday live-eviction episode on August 20, 2026, but it was a standard single eviction rather than a double eviction. Houseguest Rick Devens used the Diamond Power of Veto to pull ally Dee Valladares off the block and replace her with Kamu Kirk, leaving Kamu, Angela Murray and Haley Thogmartin facing the vote after a "BB Blockbuster" competition removed one of the three from nomination. Kamu Kirk was evicted by an 8-1 house vote, according to Gold Derby's live recap of the episode, and Dee Valladares went on to win the following Head of Household competition that same night. No second eviction occurred later in the episode, and the show's Season 28 schedule had not called for a double-eviction format at that point in the season. This kept the season on its normal weekly elimination pace heading into the following week's competitions. All community votes on this question (0% predicting yes) correctly anticipated that no double eviction would take place, matching the actual outcome.

Alaska held its top-four, all-party primary for governor on August 18, 2026. Preliminary and near-final results reported by Alaska Beacon, Alaska Public Media and the Anchorage Daily News showed Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leading the field with about 21.6% of the vote, followed by fellow Democrat Tom Begich with roughly 20% (about 26,377 votes), placing Begich second rather than first. Republican candidates identified in coverage as Wilson and Bronson rounded out the top four who advanced to the November general election, which will be decided by ranked-choice voting among the four finishers. Begich did not lead the field at any point in the counted returns cited by these outlets. The result continues a crowded-field dynamic reporters had flagged in the run-up to the primary, in which multiple candidates struggled to separate themselves from one another in a large field. The question asked whether Begich would finish first; he finished second, behind Kreiss-Tomkins. Two-thirds of community votes (67%) predicted Begich would come in first, a call that did not match the certified early outcome.

Walmart reported fiscal second-quarter results on August 20, 2026, posting adjusted earnings of $0.81 per share and revenue of roughly $187.9 billion, both ahead of Wall Street estimates. Despite the headline beat, shares fell approximately 9% that day, according to CNBC and Yahoo Finance market coverage, marking one of the stock's steepest single-day declines in years. The drop was driven by U.S. comparable sales growth of 2.6%, short of the roughly 3.5% analysts had forecast, and by investor concern that Walmart's plan to cut prices to defend market share would pressure margins even though full-year guidance was raised. Walmart's slide also weighed on the broader market that day, since the stock is a component of the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. The question asked whether Walmart's stock would close higher on the day it reported results; it closed lower instead. The community's vote (100% predicting a higher close, from a single participant) did not match the actual outcome, illustrating how an earnings beat can still produce a negative stock reaction when underlying metrics disappoint.

Sydney Sweeney and Scooter Braun had not been reported engaged or married as of August 21, 2026. The actress and music executive made their relationship Instagram official on May 1, 2026, after attending the Stagecoach festival together, following months of dating that began after they were first linked at Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez's Venice wedding in mid-2025, according to Fox News and Newsweek relationship-timeline coverage. Tabloid and entertainment reports through the summer speculated the couple might skip a lengthy engagement in favor of a quick wedding, and some outlets reported Sweeney spending significant time at Braun's Los Angeles home by mid-August, but neither Sweeney nor Braun publicly confirmed an engagement or marriage plan. No wedding announcement, engagement-ring reveal, or marriage-license filing was reported by mainstream outlets before the question's deadline. The relationship continued to generate speculative coverage without a confirmed milestone event. The community unanimously predicted NO on this question, with both recorded votes (0 percent YES) correctly anticipating that no engagement or marriage report would surface in the window, matching the actual outcome.

The UN Security Council did hold a second secret straw poll in the race to succeed Secretary-General António Guterres, but it took place on August 21, 2026, rather than before that date, so the question resolved NO on a matter of timing. The informal ballot, reported the same day by The National and other outlets, asked the Council's 15 members to rate each of eight declared candidates as "encouraged," "discouraged," or "no opinion expressed," continuing a process that began with a first straw poll in late July. Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan held early momentum after leading that first poll, with contenders including IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, and newly nominated Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne A-Baki also in the field. The straw-poll process is meant to narrow the field before the Council makes a formal recommendation to the UN General Assembly, which will select a successor to Guterres when his second term ends in December 2026. Because the second poll landed on the deadline date itself rather than strictly before it, the market resolved NO despite the event occurring almost exactly as anticipated. The lone recorded vote (100 percent YES) expected the poll in time, but the exact timing meant the community's prediction did not hold up.

The United States pushed back its tariff deadline for Canada. Hours before a 50 percent tariff on a range of Canadian goods was set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on August 19, 2026, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the deadline would be extended by three days, through the end of Friday, August 21, to allow more time for a trade deal. The tariffs stemmed from three Section 338 proclamations Trump signed on July 20, 2026, targeting Canadian motor vehicles, alcohol, and dairy products amid an unresolved trade dispute. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held direct phone talks with Trump as Ottawa mounted an intensive last-minute push, describing the negotiations as "very intense and delicate," according to Canadian outlets covering the talks. The extension bought both sides additional negotiating time rather than resolving the underlying dispute, and manufacturers on both sides of the border continued bracing for the possibility of the tariffs taking effect if no deal was reached by the new deadline. The community unanimously predicted this outcome, with the single recorded vote (100 percent YES) correctly anticipating that Washington would delay rather than let the original deadline pass.

Zambia's ruling UPND fell short of an outright majority in the National Assembly following the August 13, 2026 election, even as President Hakainde Hichilema won re-election with about 61 percent of the presidential vote, in results the Electoral Commission of Zambia finalized around August 18. A December 2025 constitutional amendment had expanded the Assembly from 156 to 280 seats, comprising 226 directly elected constituencies, 40 proportional-representation seats tied to the presidential vote, and up to 11 presidential and speaker nominees, raising the majority threshold to 141 seats. In the constituency contest, the UPND won roughly 136 of the 226 declared seats, according to Zambian outlets including News Diggers, ahead of the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity's 60 and independents' 20, but that total alone did not clear the 141-seat threshold for the enlarged chamber. Whether the party crossed that line once proportional and nominated seats were allocated was not settled by the question's August 21 deadline. This is a case where the community got it wrong: all recorded voters (2 votes, 100 percent) predicted a UPND majority, but the constituency count alone fell short under the newly expanded assembly's higher threshold.

The Board of Peace had not announced a start date for Hamas's disarmament by August 21, 2026. The US-backed body secured Hamas's agreement in principle to disarm around July 30-31, in a deal calling for a detailed roadmap to be prepared within 14 days of all parties' approval, with the implementation timetable itself still pending. On August 4, Al Jazeera reported the Board's position that any Israeli withdrawal from Gaza would only follow completion of Hamas's disarmament, without fixing when that process would begin. In mid-August, US envoy Jared Kushner held direct talks with Hamas official Ismail Al-Hayya in Egypt on August 17, then met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, where the two agreed demilitarization should start with a Hamas weapons handover supervised by a US general, according to NBC News. Even that agreement did not fix a concrete start date, and Netanyahu had separately said Israel had not agreed to the Board's full disarmament terms. Implementation mechanics, including sequencing and verification, remained under negotiation past the question's deadline. The community unanimously voted NO on this question across 2 votes, correctly anticipating that no start date would be set in time.

The European Commission did not put forward formal legislative changes to EU asylum rules before August 21, 2026. Following a surge of roughly 50,000 migrant crossings from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in late July, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on August 3, calling the images "unacceptable" and pledging additional EU funding, Frontex personnel, and cooperation with Morocco to reinforce border security. Her response outlined action in five areas, including strengthened borders, early-warning systems, and more returns, but stopped short of proposing amendments to the bloc's asylum regulations themselves. The EU's overhauled Pact on Migration and Asylum, a package of ten legislative acts, had already entered into application on June 12, 2026, and officials treated the Ceuta episode as an early stress test of that existing framework rather than grounds for new rulemaking. No new Commission asylum-rules proposal followed in the weeks after the crisis. The community leaned toward NO on this question, with only 33 percent voting YES across three votes, and that majority view matched the actual outcome.

Google's Gemini 3 Flash remained in public preview through August 21, 2026, and did not reach general availability by the market's deadline. GitHub's developer changelog, dated July 31, 2026, listed "gemini-3-flash-preview" among models being deprecated while still carrying its preview designation, advising developers to migrate to newer models such as Gemini 3.5 Flash. Rather than graduating the original Gemini 3 Flash to GA, Google moved forward with successor releases: Gemini 3.5 Flash reached general availability in May 2026, Gemini 3.6 Flash followed in July, and Gemini 3.7 Flash shipped directly to general availability on August 13, 2026, skipping a preview phase entirely. The original Gemini 3 Flash was effectively superseded and deprecated while still labeled "preview," rather than being formally promoted to GA status itself. This reflects Google's fast iteration cadence for its Flash-tier models in 2026, with each new point release replacing the last within months rather than each earlier version being individually elevated to general availability. The community voted 100 percent YES on this question across 2 votes, anticipating Google would formalize Gemini 3 Flash's GA status before the deadline; the market resolved NO, meaning the small community sample got the call wrong.