Will Zambia's ruling UPND win a majority of National Assembly seats in the Aug 13 election?

Zambia's ruling UPND fell short of an outright majority in the National Assembly following the August 13, 2026 election, even as President Hakainde Hichilema won re-election with about 61 percent of the presidential vote, in results the Electoral Commission of Zambia finalized around August 18. A December 2025 constitutional amendment had expanded the Assembly from 156 to 280 seats, comprising 226 directly elected constituencies, 40 proportional-representation seats tied to the presidential vote, and up to 11 presidential and speaker nominees, raising the majority threshold to 141 seats. In the constituency contest, the UPND won roughly 136 of the 226 declared seats, according to Zambian outlets including News Diggers, ahead of the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity's 60 and independents' 20, but that total alone did not clear the 141-seat threshold for the enlarged chamber. Whether the party crossed that line once proportional and nominated seats were allocated was not settled by the question's August 21 deadline. This is a case where the community got it wrong: all recorded voters (2 votes, 100 percent) predicted a UPND majority, but the constituency count alone fell short under the newly expanded assembly's higher threshold.