Will the Security Council hold a second U.N. secretary-general straw poll before Aug 21?

The UN Security Council did hold a second secret straw poll in the race to succeed Secretary-General António Guterres, but it took place on August 21, 2026, rather than before that date, so the question resolved NO on a matter of timing. The informal ballot, reported the same day by The National and other outlets, asked the Council's 15 members to rate each of eight declared candidates as "encouraged," "discouraged," or "no opinion expressed," continuing a process that began with a first straw poll in late July. Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan held early momentum after leading that first poll, with contenders including IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, and newly nominated Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne A-Baki also in the field. The straw-poll process is meant to narrow the field before the Council makes a formal recommendation to the UN General Assembly, which will select a successor to Guterres when his second term ends in December 2026. Because the second poll landed on the deadline date itself rather than strictly before it, the market resolved NO despite the event occurring almost exactly as anticipated. The lone recorded vote (100 percent YES) expected the poll in time, but the exact timing meant the community's prediction did not hold up.