The CDC counted 2,465 measles cases on Aug 6. Will the 2026 tally top 2,650 in the Aug 19 update?
100% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 1 predictions cast.
The CDC's weekly measles update covering data through Aug. 19-20, 2026, put the confirmed 2026 U.S. case total at 2,777, according to CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy), which reported the agency added 211 new cases in that update. That is an increase of 312 cases from the 2,465 reported on Aug. 6, and it exceeds the 2,650 threshold in the market question.
The rise was driven largely by outbreaks in Pennsylvania and Ohio, which together accounted for roughly 84% of new cases added in the prior week's update; Pennsylvania has since become the nation's third-largest state outbreak behind Utah and South Carolina, with Lancaster County alone accounting for about half its cases. CDC data cited by CIDRAP show 94% of 2026 cases are unvaccinated or of unknown vaccination status, and 94% are linked to one of roughly three dozen active outbreaks, consistent with under-vaccinated community clusters rather than isolated imported cases.
The 2026 total had already surpassed the 2,289 cases reported for all of 2025, itself the highest annual U.S. count since 1991, and a federal panel and the Pan American Health Organization were reported to be reviewing whether the country will retain its year-2000 measles elimination status later in 2026.
On Predict Six, the market's single recorded vote (100% "yes") happened to match the outcome, but with only one voter the result carries no meaningful statistical weight.