August 14, 2026

At its Aug. 12, 2026 Made by Google event, Google raised the starting price of the Pixel 11 Pro to $1,099, up $100 from the Pixel 10 Pro's $999 starting price. The increase applied across the entire lineup: the base Pixel 11 rose to $899 from $799, the Pixel 11 Pro XL to $1,299 from $1,199, and the Pixel 11 Pro Fold to $1,899 from $1,799. To partly offset the hikes, Google doubled the base storage on the Pixel 11 and Pixel 11 Pro to 256GB.

Google had signaled the increase roughly three weeks earlier, attributing it to a surge in memory-chip costs and stating that it had "shielded" customers from supply fluctuations for as long as possible before the economics "fundamentally shifted."

The community's 52% "yes" probability, essentially a coin flip, matched the actual outcome: the Pixel 11 Pro's starting price rose by exactly $100, meeting the threshold.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July 2026 Consumer Price Index on August 12, showing headline inflation at 3.4% year over year, in line with economist forecasts and down one-tenth of a point from June's 3.5%, on a monthly increase of 0.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in at 2.5% annually, also matching forecasts and down from June's 2.6%, on a 0.2% monthly rise.

Because the report matched Wall Street's consensus rather than exceeding it, inflation did not run hotter year over year; it continued the two-month cooling trend that began in June. The in-line reading reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting and contributed to a rally in gold and a small pullback in Treasury yields in the sessions that followed.

The community's forecast of 100% "yes" did not match the actual outcome: nearly all forecasters on Predict Six expected July's CPI to come in hotter, but the print matched consensus and continued cooling instead, resolving the question false.

Aaron Rodgers did not play in the Pittsburgh Steelers' 28-9 preseason-opening win over his former team, the Green Bay Packers, at Acrisure Stadium on August 13, 2026. Rodgers was on the sideline in street clothes; the Steelers instead used quarterbacks Mason Rudolph, Will Howard and rookie Drew Allar, with Allar throwing two touchdown passes and running for a third in his NFL debut.

Because Rodgers took no snaps in the game, he did not throw a touchdown pass, or any pass, against Green Bay. The game marked new Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy's debut leading Pittsburgh, notable given that McCarthy and Rodgers spent 13 seasons together in Green Bay, including a Super Bowl title, before Rodgers signed with the Steelers.

The community forecast on Predict Six had priced this outcome at 0% likelihood of a Rodgers touchdown pass against the Packers, matching the actual result of Rodgers not appearing in the game at all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea requested a trade in late July 2026 amid an unresolved contract dispute, holding in during mandatory minicamp and sitting out training camp practices while seeking a deal commensurate with the NFL's top-paid interior defensive linemen. Despite reported interest from other teams, Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht told reporters on August 6, 2026, that he had "no plans" to trade Vea, while saying the two sides remained "engaged" and that he considered the relationship salvageable.

No trade was completed before the Buccaneers' August 13 preseason opener. Vea's agent had said publicly he did not see the situation ending in anything but a trade, but Tampa Bay retained its two-time Pro Bowler through the start of preseason.

The community forecast on Predict Six had placed only a 20% probability on a trade occurring before preseason games began, matching the actual outcome of no trade.

A total solar eclipse swept over western Iceland on Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2026, plunging Reykjavik into darkness for the first time since 1433, but heavy cloud cover and rain obscured the visible moment of totality in the capital. Totality reached Keflavik, about 30 miles southwest of Reykjavik, at 5:47 p.m. GMT, and lasted just over a minute in central Reykjavik, compared with about 2 minutes 13 seconds at Latrabjarg on Iceland's westernmost cliffs, where skies were clearer.

The eclipse was the first visible from central and western Europe since 1999, with its path also crossing Greenland and northern Spain. Forecasters had predicted rain and heavy cloud over Reykjavik and the Snaefellsnes region in the days before the event, while the Westfjords remained drier but still overcast.

The community's "yes" probability of 40% did not match the actual outcome: clouds did blot out visible totality in Reykjavik, despite only a minority of forecasters expecting that result.

Solana's SOL token failed to close above $80 in the days leading up to Aug. 14, 2026, trading in a range roughly between $75 and $77 as the network prepared for its Alpenglow protocol upgrade. Price trackers showed SOL at approximately $76.41 on Aug. 13, 2026, with an intraday range of $75.35 to $77.07.

The token's price stayed subdued even as Solana prepared to roll out Alpenglow, a major protocol upgrade intended to cut transaction finality from about 12 seconds to roughly 150 milliseconds, in stages between August and October 2026; a routing fault also caused a portion of staked SOL to go delinquent around Aug. 12, adding to near-term uncertainty around the token.

The community's "yes" probability of 100% did not match the actual outcome: SOL did not close above $80 before Aug. 14, meaning the market was highly confident in an outcome that failed to materialize.

The Commerce Department's advance retail sales report for July 2026, released August 14, showed total retail and food services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June — well short of the 0.4% growth threshold and marking the sharpest monthly decline in more than a year. Sales excluding autos and gasoline fell 0.2%. This followed a 0.2% rise in June.

The decline was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers, down 1.8%, and nonstore retailers including online sellers, down 2.2%, while categories such as clothing stores and health and personal care stores posted gains. Year over year, sales remained up 5.0%, but the monthly drop marked a sharp cooldown from the stronger spring pace of consumer spending.

The community's forecast was evenly split at 50% "yes." The actual outcome was "no" — July sales fell rather than accelerating past 0.4% growth — so the community's 50/50 estimate did not lean toward the correct side.

By August 13, 2026, the CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike at its September meeting had fallen well below 50%, to roughly the low-to-mid 30% range, down from odds near 55% earlier in the week. The drop followed two consecutive soft inflation reports: July CPI, released August 12, showed annual inflation cooling to 3.4%, and the July Producer Price Index, released August 13, came in flat, below the 0.2% increase economists had expected.

Those reports followed an earlier disappointment: the economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, a weak reading that had already begun pushing traders toward pricing in a Fed pause rather than a hike. The combination of soft labor and price data recalibrated market expectations toward the Fed holding rates steady in September.

The community's forecast of 42% "yes" was directionally correct, since a majority leaned toward "no," matching the actual outcome that FedWatch odds stayed below 50%, though the 42% figure understated how far the hike probability had fallen.

Iran and Oman negotiated for weeks over a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz but had not signed a formal agreement by mid-August 2026. Tehran said on August 5 that it had reached agreement with Muscat on the coordinates of new shipping lanes, describing a joint statement as being in its "final drafting stage." Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, called the deal "very close" on August 8-9 but said it remained conditioned on the United States meeting additional demands before the waterway would fully reopen.

Iran maintained that any Iran-Oman arrangement, even once signed, would not by itself reopen the strait to American or Israeli vessels. Oman did not publicly confirm the specifics Iran described, and no joint statement or signed accord had been announced by either government as of the deadline.

The community's forecast (52% "yes") leaned toward a deal being signed, but the actual outcome was negative — talks remained unfinalized past the deadline.

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs signed a three-year, $67.5 million contract extension on August 6, 2026, ending a training-camp holdout. Gibbs had reported to the team's facility for camp but sat out the first six practices while seeking a new deal, returning to practice in a limited capacity the same day the extension was finalized.

The contract included $51.5 million in guaranteed money and could reach $75.75 million with incentives, making Gibbs, then 24, the NFL's highest-paid running back by average annual value at $22.5 million, surpassing the three-year, $66.75 million deal the Atlanta Falcons had given Bijan Robinson days earlier. The deal came amid a broader reshaping of the running back market following several top backs' extensions in 2026.

The community's forecast (69% "yes") matched the actual outcome; Detroit extended Gibbs before the deadline.

CoreWeave reported second-quarter 2026 results after market close on Tuesday, August 11, posting revenue of $2.58 billion, up 112% from a year earlier, with a narrower-than-expected adjusted per-share loss of $1.03 versus a forecast $1.20 loss. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion and reported a revenue backlog exceeding $100 billion.

Shares surged in after-hours trading following the report and continued climbing through the next session, closing up roughly 19-22% on Wednesday, August 12. The rally was driven by the earnings and revenue beat, the raised guidance, and news of expanded customer commitments, including additional capacity pledges from Meta and a multi-year agreement with Anthropic.

The community's forecast of 0% "yes" was wrong: traders had priced in a roughly 15% potential swing ahead of earnings but positioned for a decline, whereas the stock in fact closed sharply higher, resolving the question true.

Google unveiled the Pixel 11 Pro Fold at its Made by Google event in New York on Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2026, pricing the foldable phone starting at $1,899 for the 256GB model — $100 higher than the $1,799 starting price of the previous year's Pixel 10 Pro Fold. The device, unveiled alongside the Pixel 11, Pixel 11 Pro and Pixel 11 Pro XL, features an 8-inch inner display and is about 10% lighter and 1mm thinner than its predecessor.

Pre-orders opened the same day through the Google Store and major carriers and retailers, with retail availability set for Aug. 20, 2026. The price increase applied across Google's entire Pixel 11 lineup, which the company attributed to rising memory-chip costs.

The community's "yes" probability of 56% was close to a coin flip but ultimately matched the actual outcome, as Google set the Fold's price at exactly $1,899, meeting the $1,899-or-more threshold.

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, caused by the Bundibugyo virus and declared on May 15, 2026, surpassed 4,500 confirmed cases in mid-August, reaching roughly 4,665 cases and 2,184 deaths by August 14 as it spread to a sixth province, Bas-Uele, according to Africa CDC Director-General Jean Kaseya. Case totals had already reached 4,381, with 2,011 deaths, by August 11, per Al Jazeera reporting citing DRC Ministry of Health data, before crossing the 4,500 mark within days.

Health officials described the epidemic as the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record, outpacing the 2014-16 West African epidemic in speed. No approved vaccine or treatment exists for the Bundibugyo species, complicating containment, and delayed detection plus ongoing armed conflict in eastern Congo hindered the response after the outbreak spread undetected for weeks before its formal declaration.

The community's forecast (64% "yes") matched the actual outcome of the case count surpassing 4,500 before the deadline.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at approximately 4.69% on August 12, 2026, just below the 4.70% threshold. Yields were little changed on the day even as stocks fluctuated.

The muted move followed the release of the July Consumer Price Index that morning, which showed headline inflation at 3.4% year over year and core inflation at 2.5%, both matching Wall Street's consensus forecasts and both down one-tenth of a percentage point from June. Because the inflation data came in exactly as expected rather than surprising to the upside, bond traders made only marginal adjustments to yields, keeping the 10-year rate anchored just under the 4.70% mark going into the close.

The community's forecast was evenly split at 50% "yes." The actual outcome was "yes" (yield closed below 4.70%), meaning the 50/50 community estimate reflected the closeness of the outcome without leaning toward the correct side.

Gold prices closed above $4,400 an ounce on August 12, 2026, reaching around $4,415-$4,420, their highest level in more than two months. The metal had climbed roughly 6% over the prior week from about $4,307.

The rally was driven primarily by the July Consumer Price Index report released that same morning, which showed annual inflation cooling to 3.4% from 3.5% in June, in line with forecasts. The softer-than-expected reading, following a weak July jobs report earlier in the month, reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its September meeting, boosting demand for gold as a non-yielding hedge.

The community's forecast was evenly split at 50% "yes," reflecting genuine uncertainty ahead of the CPI release about whether gold would clear the $4,400 threshold. The actual outcome was "yes," with gold closing above that level.

No team scored at least 30 points during the NFL's 2026 preseason opening night on August 13. Six games were played: the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Green Bay Packers 28-9, the Arizona Cardinals defeated the Las Vegas Raiders 27-14, the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Houston Texans 27-7, the Cincinnati Bengals edged the Detroit Lions 16-14, the Tennessee Titans beat the San Francisco 49ers 19-13, and the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots played to a 13-13 tie.

The Steelers' 28 points, scored behind rookie quarterback Drew Allar's two touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown, was the highest total of the night but fell two points short of the 30-point threshold. Preseason openers typically feature limited playing time for starters and heavy rotation of backup players, which tends to suppress scoring relative to regular-season games.

The community's forecast (67% "yes") did not match the actual outcome; despite most forecasters expecting a 30-point performance, the highest score across all six games was 28.

Major League Baseball returned to the Field of Dreams movie site in Dyersville, Iowa, on August 13, 2026, where the Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Minnesota Twins 7-1 in the third edition of the event, before an announced crowd of 7,163. Kyle Schwarber hit two home runs into the cornfield, extending his major-league-leading home run total to 37, while Brandon Marsh added a two-run shot to widen the margin.

Phillies starter Aaron Nola struck out nine over five innings while allowing only one run, earning his first win since May 26, and Philadelphia's 12-hit attack sealed the victory. The win kept the Phillies in the National League's third wild-card position, while the loss left the Twins a game back in the American League playoff field.

The community forecast on Predict Six had placed a 96% probability on a Phillies win, consistent with the actual outcome.

Applied Materials reported fiscal third-quarter 2026 results on August 13, posting revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25% year over year and above both its own $8.95 billion guidance and Wall Street's roughly $8.99-9.0 billion consensus estimate. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $3.50, also topping analyst forecasts of about $3.40-3.45.

The beat was driven largely by continued strong demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment tied to AI chip production. Despite the top- and bottom-line beat, shares fell in after-hours trading as investors focused on near-term margin guidance and a declining share of China revenue. For the fiscal fourth quarter, the company guided to approximately $10.25 billion in revenue, above prior analyst expectations.

The community's forecast of 100% "yes" matched the actual outcome: revenue did top the $8.95 billion guidance figure, resolving the question true.

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day," the Tom Holland-led Sony/Marvel release, crossed $700 million at the domestic box office on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 — 13 days after opening — making it the fastest film in history to reach that mark, according to Deadline and Variety. The film had opened to a record $355-360 million domestic weekend and reached $700 million faster than the prior record-holders, Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avengers: Endgame, both of which took 16 days.

By that point the film had grossed roughly $704.5 million domestically and about $1.8 billion worldwide, becoming the fourth Marvel Cinematic Universe title to surpass $700 million domestically. Strong weekday holds, including a record $47 million Monday gross, sustained its pace, while minimal major competition in the following weeks helped keep ticket sales strong.

The community's forecast (64% "yes") matched the actual outcome, correctly anticipating the film would clear $700 million domestically before the deadline.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday, Aug. 14, 2026, that the national measles case count had reached 2,566 confirmed cases for the year, surpassing the 2,500 threshold. The tally grew after roughly 100 new cases were added in the CDC's weekly update, with Pennsylvania and Ohio accounting for much of the latest increase. The 2026 total is now the highest annual figure since the 1989-1991 resurgence and already exceeds 2025's total of 2,289, which itself had been the worst year since 1991.

According to the CDC, cases have been confirmed in 45 states plus New York City and Washington, D.C., with the large majority of patients unvaccinated or of unknown vaccination status. A large, ongoing South Carolina outbreak, which began in October 2025, has sickened nearly 1,000 people and become the largest single-location outbreak since measles was declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000.

The community's 82% "yes" probability aligned with the outcome, as the case count did surpass 2,500 by the Aug. 12-14 CDC update cycle.

American Ben Shelton defeated fellow American Brandon Nakashima 6-3, 7-6(4) in the men's singles final of the National Bank Open in Montreal on August 13, 2026, successfully defending his 2025 title in one hour and 27 minutes. Shelton did not drop a set across the entire tournament, closing out the second set via tiebreak rather than the match reaching a third set.

The straight-sets win made Shelton the first man to defend the Montreal title since Rafael Nadal in 2019 and earned him his second Masters 1000 championship and seventh ATP Tour title overall. Because the final ended in two sets, it did not go to a deciding third set.

The community forecast on Predict Six had priced a 33% chance of a third set being played, while the majority of forecasters correctly anticipated a straight-sets finish, matching the actual result.

Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark was named WNBA Eastern Conference Player of the Week for a second consecutive week on August 4, 2026, after posting 77 points and league-leading assist numbers (27 assists, 9.0 per game) over that stretch. When the conference award for the following week (games of August 3-9) was announced on August 11, 2026, it went instead to Washington Mystics center Shakira Austin, who averaged 22.3 points, 11.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks and was the only WNBA player to post a 20-point, 10-rebound week; it was Austin's second consecutive Associated Press Player of the Week honor.

Because the subsequent weekly award went to Austin rather than Clark, Clark's run stopped at two consecutive Eastern Conference Player of the Week selections, and she did not add a third before August 12. The community forecast on Predict Six had priced this at 0% likelihood of a third straight award for Clark, matching the actual outcome.