Will the 10-year Treasury yield close below 4.70% on Aug 12?
50% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 2 predictions cast.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at approximately 4.69% on August 12, 2026, just below the 4.70% threshold. Yields were little changed on the day even as stocks fluctuated.
The muted move followed the release of the July Consumer Price Index that morning, which showed headline inflation at 3.4% year over year and core inflation at 2.5%, both matching Wall Street's consensus forecasts and both down one-tenth of a percentage point from June. Because the inflation data came in exactly as expected rather than surprising to the upside, bond traders made only marginal adjustments to yields, keeping the 10-year rate anchored just under the 4.70% mark going into the close.
The community's forecast was evenly split at 50% "yes." The actual outcome was "yes" (yield closed below 4.70%), meaning the 50/50 community estimate reflected the closeness of the outcome without leaning toward the correct side.