The U.S. shed 23,000 jobs in July. Will CME's FedWatch tool still show above 50% odds of a September Fed hike on Aug 13?
58% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 24 predictions cast.
By August 13, 2026, the CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike at its September meeting had fallen well below 50%, to roughly the low-to-mid 30% range, down from odds near 55% earlier in the week. The drop followed two consecutive soft inflation reports: July CPI, released August 12, showed annual inflation cooling to 3.4%, and the July Producer Price Index, released August 13, came in flat, below the 0.2% increase economists had expected.
Those reports followed an earlier disappointment: the economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, a weak reading that had already begun pushing traders toward pricing in a Fed pause rather than a hike. The combination of soft labor and price data recalibrated market expectations toward the Fed holding rates steady in September.
The community's forecast of 42% "yes" was directionally correct, since a majority leaned toward "no," matching the actual outcome that FedWatch odds stayed below 50%, though the 42% figure understated how far the hike probability had fallen.