Retail sales rose 0.2% in June. Will July's advance report top 0.4% when it lands Aug 14?
50% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 2 predictions cast.
The Commerce Department's advance retail sales report for July 2026, released August 14, showed total retail and food services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June — well short of the 0.4% growth threshold and marking the sharpest monthly decline in more than a year. Sales excluding autos and gasoline fell 0.2%. This followed a 0.2% rise in June.
The decline was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers, down 1.8%, and nonstore retailers including online sellers, down 2.2%, while categories such as clothing stores and health and personal care stores posted gains. Year over year, sales remained up 5.0%, but the monthly drop marked a sharp cooldown from the stronger spring pace of consumer spending.
The community's forecast was evenly split at 50% "yes." The actual outcome was "no" — July sales fell rather than accelerating past 0.4% growth — so the community's 50/50 estimate did not lean toward the correct side.