Economists see 2.8%. Will July's CPI run hotter year over year when it lands Aug 12?
100% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 2 predictions cast.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July 2026 Consumer Price Index on August 12, showing headline inflation at 3.4% year over year, in line with economist forecasts and down one-tenth of a point from June's 3.5%, on a monthly increase of 0.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in at 2.5% annually, also matching forecasts and down from June's 2.6%, on a 0.2% monthly rise.
Because the report matched Wall Street's consensus rather than exceeding it, inflation did not run hotter year over year; it continued the two-month cooling trend that began in June. The in-line reading reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting and contributed to a rally in gold and a small pullback in Treasury yields in the sessions that followed.
The community's forecast of 100% "yes" did not match the actual outcome: nearly all forecasters on Predict Six expected July's CPI to come in hotter, but the print matched consensus and continued cooling instead, resolving the question false.