July 31, 2026

SpaceX's newly public stock never closed above $200 at any point in July 2026, resolving this question no. Shares, trading under the ticker SPCX following the company's market debut, opened around $150 and briefly surged above $225 within the stock's first week before giving back nearly all of those gains. By July 13, SPCX had sunk for a second straight session, nearing its $135 IPO price, and by July 16 the stock traded near $135.30, just above a 52-week low of $132.15.

The steep pullback from the post-IPO highs reflected typical volatility for a large, closely watched new listing: early enthusiasm gave way to profit-taking and valuation scrutiny once the initial trading frenzy cooled, and the stock spent the rest of the month well below the $200 mark this question required. Some analysts remained bullish on a longer horizon, with one widely cited prediction suggesting shares could reach $220 by the end of 2026, but that recovery had not materialized within the July window. The community was skeptical of a rebound to $200, assigning just an 18% chance to yes, and the result confirmed that pessimism as the stock extended its post-IPO slide.

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" opened with an A CinemaScore from opening-night audiences, resolving this question yes. The grade places the film alongside earlier entries "Spider-Man: Homecoming" and "Spider-Man: Far From Home," though it falls one notch below the A+ that "Spider-Man: No Way Home" received in 2021. The A grade came alongside a broader wave of strong audience reception: the film also posted a 98% Popcornmeter score on Rotten Tomatoes and set an audience-scoring record for Tom Holland's run as Spider-Man.

Thursday preview screenings brought in roughly $72 million, a figure reported to have topped even "Avengers: Endgame's" preview haul, signaling strong fan turnout heading into the wide release. CinemaScore grades, drawn from exit polling of opening-night moviegoers on a scale from A+ to F, are widely used in the industry as an early signal of word-of-mouth strength and how a film's box-office run might hold up in subsequent weeks. The community had full confidence in this outcome, and the result matched that expectation, reinforcing a positive commercial and critical debut across every major audience metric tracked around its July 31 opening.

The 10-year Treasury yield did not fall the following week, ending July 2026 close to where it started, resolving this question no. The yield had climbed to about 4.7%, its highest level since January 2025, amid persistent inflation concerns and a Federal Reserve that opted to hold rates steady rather than cut at its July 29 meeting despite a split committee. By Friday, July 31, the 10-year was trading in a range of roughly 4.67% to 4.75%, essentially unchanged to modestly higher over the week rather than declining.

Upward pressure on yields came from a combination of stubborn inflation data, mounting concerns about federal deficits, and a wave of strong corporate earnings from megacap tech companies including Amazon and Apple that reinforced expectations the Fed would stay patient on rate cuts. The elevated yield level continued to weigh on rate-sensitive sectors, including housing, where Freddie Mac's mortgage survey the same week showed the 30-year rate climbing to 6.66%. The community was closely split, with 45% predicting a decline, but yields instead held firm near multi-month highs.

Exxon Mobil missed Wall Street's earnings-per-share estimate when it reported second-quarter results on Friday, July 31, 2026, resolving this question no. The company posted adjusted earnings of $3.52 per share, below the Zacks consensus estimate of $3.68, an earnings surprise of roughly -4.4%, though still well above the $1.64 per share Exxon earned a year earlier. Total adjusted earnings for the quarter reached $14.7 billion, up sharply from $8.8 billion in the first quarter.

The EPS miss came even as revenue of $116.02 billion topped consensus expectations by more than 21%, driven by strong market prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Planned maintenance work at several of Exxon's refineries limited the company's ability to fully capitalize on those favorable prices, weighing on the bottom line despite the robust top-line performance. The mixed result, a revenue beat paired with an earnings miss, reflected operational trade-offs oil majors faced during a quarter of elevated fuel demand but constrained refining capacity. The community was fully confident in an earnings beat, making this one of the more unexpected results of the week.

The S&P 500 did not fall the week following Jim Cramer's July 23 comments about struggling to find reasons to buy stocks; instead, the index edged higher, resolving this question no. Over the week of July 27-31, 2026, the S&P 500 rose modestly, aided by an easing of Middle East tensions after the U.S. paused new strikes on Iran, which pulled oil prices down roughly $6 to around $84 a barrel and lifted the index nearly 1% in a single session.

A heavy slate of second-quarter earnings also supported the market: roughly 86% of S&P 500 companies that had reported results beat earnings estimates and 80% beat revenue estimates, including strong reports from Amazon and Apple. The rally came even as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its July 29 meeting amid mounting inflation pressure, a decision markets had largely expected. Cramer's late-July caution reflected broader unease about stretched valuations, but the week's news flow, particularly the Iran de-escalation and better-than-feared earnings, proved more influential. The community had leaned toward a decline, with 58% predicting the S&P would fall, but the index instead posted modest gains.

No criminal or regulatory charges were filed against the special inspection firm involved in New York City's near-collapse high-rise before August 1, 2026, resolving this question no. The incident began July 7, 2026, when structural columns buckled inside a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper undergoing construction, forcing evacuations during morning rush hour. Scrutiny quickly turned to Domani, the private special inspection agency the property owner had hired to oversee structural work.

New York City's Department of Buildings had previously cited Domani three times between 2012 and 2017 for violations including unlicensed concrete testing and failing to report a facade collapse, though two of those cases were dismissed and the third resulted only in a $1,000 fine. Separately, one inspector connected to the building agreed to a voluntary two-year suspension of his ability to conduct facade inspections in the city and to pay a $10,000 fine, an administrative rather than criminal action. As of the resolution date, city investigators were still reviewing Domani's broader portfolio of projects, but no charges had been announced. The community leaned toward expecting charges, at 55%, but the slower pace of any formal action left the question resolved no.

Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton in the RealClearPolling average for the 2026 Texas Senate race at multiple points during July 2026, resolving this question yes. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey conducted July 15-17 among 1,048 likely voters found Talarico ahead 45% to 40%, a 5-point lead, with Talarico posting the best net favorability rating (+12) of any candidate tested, compared to Paxton's -13.

The Texas Tribune and other outlets reported the same widening lead in late July, citing Talarico's strength on affordability, the top issue for 44% of surveyed voters, and large margins among Black and Latino voters offsetting Paxton's advantage with white voters. The shift followed a stretch in which the race had been effectively tied in RCP's polling average. Talarico, a state legislator, is running to succeed retiring Senator John Cornyn in a race Republicans have historically dominated statewide. The community had assigned a 75% chance to Talarico taking the polling lead at some point in July, and the result matched that expectation as multiple surveys showed him ahead heading into August.

No states agreed in July 2026 to the Trump administration's voting-restriction conditions attached to FEMA counterterrorism grant funding, resolving this question no. FEMA said it would withhold 20% of Homeland Security Grant Program funds, part of a $1.064 billion pool, unless states complied with new requirements including eliminating ballot-marking devices in favor of hand-marked paper ballots, committing to 5% manual post-election audits, and using DHS's SAVE database to check voter citizenship status.

Rather than comply, 24 states and Washington, D.C. filed a joint lawsuit on July 23 arguing the conditions were unlawful, and a federal judge in Rhode Island temporarily blocked the administration from cutting roughly $233 million in counterterrorism grants for Democratic-led states, including New York and Illinois. Separately, the administration reinstated $187 million in previously withheld counterterrorism funding for New York following public pressure. The community was closely divided, with 53% predicting states would comply, but the outcome went the other way, with litigation and a court injunction pausing the funding fight rather than any state acceding to the administration's terms during July.

Donald Trump did not call in to Michael Cohen's new radio show as a guest before July 31, 2026, resolving this question no. Cohen, Trump's former personal attorney and fixer who later testified against him in the 2024 hush-money trial, launched a new weekly program, "When You Know... You Know," on WABC-AM in New York on July 12, 2026. Cohen said the two men had quietly reconciled months earlier after an intermediary relayed a message from the president, and WABC owner John Catsimatidis, a Trump ally, said the White House had no objection to Cohen's hire and that Trump gave Cohen a positive send-off for the gig.

Despite that public rapprochement and Trump's blessing of the show, no reporting or show transcript indicates Trump phoned in as a live, "friendly" guest during the show's opening weeks. Coverage of the Cohen-Trump reconciliation focused on the surprising thaw in their relationship and Cohen's on-air commentary about it, not an actual appearance by the president. The community was highly confident this would not happen, assigning only a 3% chance to yes, and the result confirmed that skepticism.

Bitcoin traded above $62,000 at 5 p.m. ET on Friday, July 31, 2026, resolving this question yes. The cryptocurrency opened the day around $64,724, roughly 1.3% higher than Thursday's open, before easing back as crypto markets broadly softened during the morning session; by mid-morning bitcoin had slipped to roughly $63,600-$63,900. Despite that pullback, prices stayed comfortably above the $62,000 threshold through the close.

The dip tracked a broader risk-off mood in crypto markets that week, with both bitcoin and ether backing off recent gains as traders digested the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold interest rates steady and awaited a fresh batch of corporate earnings and economic data. Bitcoin's price action in late July continued a pattern of elevated volatility but relative resilience above the $60,000 level that had held for much of the summer. The community was fully confident in this outcome, and the result matched that expectation with room to spare, as the token never approached the threshold during the day's trading.

The CDC's weekly measles update released around July 30, 2026 showed the 2026 U.S. case count had risen to 2,371, topping the 2,350 threshold this question required and resolving it yes. The update added 53 new cases to the prior week's total of 2,318, continuing a surge that had already pushed the annual count past 2025's full-year total of 2,289 and to the highest level since 1991, the year before the U.S. was declared measles-free in 2000.

All but 16 of the new cases were locally acquired across 45 U.S. jurisdictions, with the remainder tied to international travel, and the outbreak count for the year climbed to 37. Public health officials noted that roughly 93-94% of cases were tied to ongoing outbreaks, and the vast majority of infected individuals were unvaccinated. Officials have said the sustained case count puts the U.S. at risk of losing its measles elimination status when the Pan American Health Organization reviews transmission data later in 2026. The community had assigned an 80% chance to this outcome, and the case count confirmed that expectation.

Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, July 30, 2026, showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.66%, resolving this question yes, above the 6.60% threshold. The rate rose from 6.58% the prior week, continuing a gradual climb that had already pushed rates to roughly a one-year high in the weeks before. The 15-year fixed rate also increased, averaging 6.04%, up from 5.96% a week earlier.

The uptick tracked broader bond-market moves, including a rise in Treasury yields amid persistent inflation concerns and a Federal Reserve that held its benchmark rate steady at its July 29 meeting rather than cutting. Elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on housing affordability and existing-home sales activity through the summer. The community was unanimous in predicting this outcome, and the result matched that expectation exactly, extending a pattern in which rates hovered well above the 6% level typical in prior years, keeping pressure on prospective homebuyers.

At least three Bank of England policymakers voted to raise the Bank Rate at the July 30, 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, resolving this question yes. The MPC voted 6-3 to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, with three members, Megan Greene, Catherine Mann, and Huw Pill, dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase to 4.00%. That marked a rise in hawkish dissent from two members favoring a hike in June to three in July.

Governor Andrew Bailey noted that headline inflation had fallen faster than expected, to 2.6%, but flagged that volatile and elevated energy prices, driven partly by conflict in the Middle East, remained a concern for the committee's more hawkish members. The community was unanimous in predicting this outcome, and the result confirmed that forecast. The decision keeps UK borrowing costs unchanged for now, though the growing hawkish faction signals rising internal debate over whether the Bank should resume tightening at its next meeting, scheduled for September 17, 2026.

The United States and Iran did not agree to a ceasefire by Friday, July 31, 2026, resolving this question no. The two sides ended the month in a fragile, unofficial lull rather than a formal truce: Trump paused new U.S. strikes around July 25 to give talks "space," but Iran's Foreign Ministry said on July 27 that Tehran was not currently engaged in negotiations with Washington, clarifying that its only active talks were with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.

This came after an earlier ceasefire, reached April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, had already broken down amid strikes from both sides through the spring and summer; Trump had said in early July that the prior memorandum of understanding "is over" following a fresh round of strikes. By month's end, hostilities had paused in practice without either government confirming a negotiated ceasefire agreement. The community leaned toward a no resolution, assigning just a 24% chance to a ceasefire, and the result bore that out: a pause in fighting occurred, but no formal ceasefire was reached.

President Trump did not order U.S. ground troops into Iran before August 1, 2026, resolving this question no. Despite an escalating campaign of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets through much of July and rising American casualties reported in the region, Trump stopped short of authorizing a ground invasion. On July 25, Trump directed the military not to conduct new strikes that day, breaking a nearly two-week streak of daily attacks, as officials signaled a pause intended to give diplomacy room to work.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine told lawmakers that "air power's got limits" and that the Pentagon was developing options, but declined to confirm ground combat was imminent. Trump said the U.S. remained "locked and loaded" for further strikes but had not decided whether to proceed while talks continued. Military analysts and former officials told reporters the U.S. did not appear to be moving toward a major ground campaign. The community had assigned only a 14% chance to a ground invasion, and the outcome matched that low expectation, with the conflict remaining an air and missile campaign.

Brent crude did not close below $85 a barrel on Friday, July 31, 2026, resolving this question no. Oil prices had slid earlier in the week on reports Iran might halt its attacks amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict, with Brent dropping roughly $6 to around $84 by July 27-28 on hopes of a pause in hostilities. Prices firmed back up into the end of the week, however, with Brent trading around $86 a barrel on Friday, settling above the $85 threshold this question required.

The moves tracked closely with headlines around the U.S.-Iran conflict: reports of de-escalation pushed prices down, while continued uncertainty over whether a durable ceasefire would hold kept a floor under the market. Volatility in energy markets through late July was driven largely by the on-again, off-again pattern of strikes and pauses between the U.S. and Iran. The community was evenly split on this question, with a 50% yes probability from a small sample of votes, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which direction oil would move given the fluid geopolitical backdrop heading into month's end.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not reinstate ousted defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov before August 1, 2026, resolving this question no. Zelenskyy fired Fedorov, a popular tech-focused minister credited with expanding Ukraine's drone program, on July 16 as part of a broader government reshuffle, triggering days of street protests in Kyiv and other cities demanding his return. Facing continued pressure, Zelenskyy offered Fedorov alternative posts, including deputy prime minister for military innovations and deputy prime minister for technological development, but Fedorov publicly rejected each offer, saying he would not accept any position other than defense minister and that he did not understand the rationale for his dismissal.

The standoff continued alongside separate protests over Zelenskyy's firing of commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, whose rift with Fedorov was widely reported as a factor in the reshuffle. The community leaned toward a no resolution, with only 27% predicting a rehire, and the outcome matched that expectation, with Fedorov remaining outside the Ministry of Defense as protests continued into late July.

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day," starring Tom Holland, opened July 31, 2026 with a 90% Tomatometer score from critics and a 98% Popcornmeter score from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes, clearing the 80% threshold on both metrics required for this question to resolve yes. The audience score set a franchise record for Holland's run as Spider-Man, surpassing his previous entries including "No Way Home." Critics praised the film's handling of Peter Parker's arc following the character's memory-wipe storyline from the prior installment, while general audiences responded even more enthusiastically in early screenings.

Landing above 90% approval from both critics and moviegoers is rare for a modern tentpole blockbuster, and the film also posted strong Thursday preview numbers reported to have topped $72 million. The community had forecast a 73% chance of a yes outcome, and the result confirmed that expectation, positioning the film as one of the best-reviewed entries in the modern Spider-Man series to date.

Apple shares fell roughly 10% on Friday, July 31, 2026, the day after Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO, erasing close to $500 billion in market value in the stock's worst single-day drop since March 2020. The selloff came despite Apple beating on revenue and posting record iPhone sales; investors instead focused on weak forward guidance driven by supply-chain constraints. Cook, addressing analysts for the last time before handing the CEO role to John Ternus in September, said component shortages tied to the AI-driven data-center boom were "very significant" and that Apple had limited near-term options to secure enough memory chips and other parts. The drop returned the title of world's most valuable company to Nvidia, which Apple had briefly reclaimed days earlier.

Community forecasters were confident Apple would close higher, with 75% predicting yes, but the stock instead sank on the disappointing outlook, illustrating how forward guidance can outweigh a strong quarter. This closed out Cook's 15-year tenure as CEO with a rocky final trading session, even as he told investors he had never been more optimistic about Apple's future.