Ninety-six percent of you were sure Trump would name a new press secretary before the week was out.
He didn't. He's not in a hurry, and it turns out neither of us priced that in — we just assumed a vacancy this visible gets filled fast, the way most vacancies do. But some jobs get bigger the longer they sit open, and the White House podium is apparently one of them, with cabinet officials taking turns at it in the meantime. Deadlines feel real right up until someone with actual power decides they aren't. "Before the midterms" was doing a lot of load-bearing work in that sentence, and none of us noticed the weight.
Eighty-three percent of you bet Canada's paused tariffs would stay paused. They didn't.
The two countries shook hands on a delay with two hours left on the clock, and everyone — us included — treated the handshake like the deal. It wasn't. Trade talks are a bit like tide pools: calm right up until the water pulls back, and by the time you notice, it's already gone. Both sides blamed the other for the collapse, which in my experience is usually the tell that a deal was never as close as the photo op made it look.
Seventy-nine percent of you had Rickie Fowler holding his spot in the FedEx Cup top 30. He didn't.
Three bogeys in his last six holes at Bellerive, and a two-shot cushion was gone by Sunday. We like a comeback story, and Fowler's been the tour's favorite one for a couple of years now — which is exactly how he got overrated in our own market. We were betting on the narrative, not the number. Margins that thin don't need bad luck to disappear. They just need one ordinary bad round, on an ordinary Saturday, from a guy who's had plenty of them.
Three unrelated stories, one shared mistake: we kept mistaking "in motion" for "decided." A handshake isn't a deal, a frontrunner isn't a hire, and two shots isn't a cushion until the tournament's actually over. Worth remembering before you load up on next week's board.
This week's resolutions
Culture
- Will the judge agree with Justin Baldoni that Blake Lively's request for legal fees is excessive? → Yes
- 'The End of Oak Street' opened at 85% on the Tomatometer. Will it still be 85% or higher on Aug 24? → Yes
- Netflix drops the final season of 'Outer Banks' Aug 20. Can it debut atop Netflix's U.S. show chart? → Yes
- Jason Statham's 'Mutiny' opens Aug 21. Can it top $10 million domestically over its first weekend? → No
- 'Choosin' Texas' has led the Hot 100 for 18 weeks. Will a 19th tie it with 'Old Town Road' on the Aug 29 chart? → Yes
- Prince Harry and Meghan are reported to be moving back to Britain. Will they or their office confirm it publicly before Aug 26? → No
- Tracking says $23-35 million. Will 'Insidious: Out of the Further' open above $30 million domestically over Aug 21-23? → No
Discovery
- Meta says its most powerful model is going open. Will it release the Muse Spark 1.2 weights before Aug 25? → No
- SpaceX flew its 90th Falcon 9 of 2026 on Aug 4. Will it reach 100 before Aug 26? → Yes
- Does the CDC's next measles count, due Aug 26, come in above 2,700 cases? → Yes
- An FDA panel voted 9-3 against it. Does the FDA approve Capricor's Duchenne therapy anyway by Aug 22? → No
- Forecasters are tracking three Atlantic systems. Will any part of the U.S. coast be under a hurricane watch before Aug 25? → No
- Apple's iPhone 18 event is expected Sept 9. Will Apple send out the invitations before Aug 27? → Yes
- Bitcoin has climbed 22% this week to about $78,000. Will BTC still be above $74,000 at the Aug 26 close? → Yes
Markets
- Brent settled at $88.31 as the Hormuz ceasefire lapsed. Does crude close above $95 a barrel before Aug 26? → Yes
- Nvidia guided to $91 billion. Will it report more than $93 billion in revenue on Aug 26? → Yes
- Moderna jumped 177% to $174.38 on its cancer-vaccine win. Will the stock close above $150 on Aug 25? → Yes
- Will OpenAI's IPO prospectus appear publicly on the SEC's EDGAR system before Aug 27? → No
- Nvidia closed at $217.56 ahead of its Aug 26 earnings. Will the stock close above $225 on Aug 27? → Yes
- Wall Street sees $2.08 a share. Will Nvidia's adjusted earnings top $2.20 when it reports Aug 26? → Yes
- Dollar General guided to $7.20 to $7.45 a share for the year. Will it raise that forecast when it reports Aug 27? → Yes
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.73%, its highest since early 2025. Will it still be above 4.60% at the Aug 24 close? → Yes
- Nvidia guided to $91 billion in revenue. Will data center sales top $80 billion when it reports Aug 26? → Yes
- Wall Street sees core PCE holding at 3.3%. Does July's reading top that when the report lands Aug 26? → No
- Wall Street sees $6.20 a share from Ulta Beauty. Will it beat that when it reports Aug 27? → Yes
Politics
- Will Darlene Graham win the special election to replace her beloved brother Lindsey in the Senate? → Yes
- Will SCOTUS deny Trump's emergency appeal on mail-in voting restrictions? → No
- Trump endorsed Darline Graham over Rep. Ralph Norman. Will Graham win South Carolina's Republican Senate runoff Aug 25? → Yes
- Will Trump name a new White House press secretary before Aug 29? → No
- Will the Associated Press call South Carolina's Republican Senate runoff before 10 p.m. ET on Aug 25? → Yes
Sports
- Will Patrick Mahomes take a snap in a Chiefs preseason game before Aug 29? → No
- Rickie Fowler sits 30th in FedEx Cup points, two clear of Gary Woodland. Can he hold on and make the Tour Championship? → No
- The world No. 1 tees it up at Bellerive Aug 20. Will Scottie Scheffler win the BMW Championship? → No
- Rory McIlroy tees it up at Bellerive on Aug 20. Will he finish inside the top five at the BMW Championship? → Yes
- Will Novak Djokovic land in Carlos Alcaraz's half of the U.S. Open men's draw on Aug 27? → Yes
- Serena Williams is back at the U.S. Open. Can she and Carlos Alcaraz win their opening mixed doubles match on Aug 25? → Yes
- Will the Cowboys beat the Cardinals in Arizona on Aug 22? → Yes
World
- Trump won't extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire that expired Aug 17. Will U.S. forces strike targets inside Iran before Aug 26? → No
- Trump paused his 50% tariffs on Canadian goods through Aug 21. Will they take effect before Aug 28? → Yes
- Will the United States and Iran announce a ceasefire before Aug 26? → No
- Hormuz traffic is a tenth of prewar levels. Will the U.S. and Iran announce a deal to reopen the strait before Aug 26? → No
- Trump declared an "economic D-Day" on Iran. Will the U.S. sanction a company or bank outside Iran over Tehran ties before Aug 29? → Yes