Brent settled at $88.31 as the Hormuz ceasefire lapsed. Does crude close above $95 a barrel before Aug 26?

Brent crude oil climbed back above $95 a barrel in the third week of August 2026, closing at $95.40 on August 20 and $95.29 on August 21, according to Fortune's daily oil-price tracking. The rally came after Brent had settled near $88.31 when a ceasefire covering the Strait of Hormuz lapsed, reviving fears that renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities could choke off tanker traffic through a corridor that carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply. Prices retreated in the following days as traders increasingly viewed the standoff as a sanctions and diplomatic confrontation rather than an immediate threat to physical crude flows, with Brent settling back into the high $80s by late August. Even so, the brief close above $95 in the window before August 26 was enough to resolve the question, since it asked only whether crude would close above that threshold at any point in the window, not whether the level would hold.

The prediction market's community leaned against this outcome, with just 33 percent forecasting yes, underestimating how much the Hormuz-related supply fears would move prices even briefly. The community's answer proved wrong.