Hormuz traffic is a tenth of prewar levels. Will the U.S. and Iran announce a deal to reopen the strait before Aug 26?
74% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 23 predictions cast.
As of Aug. 26, 2026, no U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had been announced, and shipping through the waterway remained a fraction of prewar levels. Iran said the United States was standing in the way of a Hormuz arrangement being negotiated between Tehran and Oman; the two countries had outlined a phased framework for a temporary shipping corridor and mine-clearing project, but Washington disputed Iran's characterization, insisting any temporary routes be free of tolls, approvals or permissions. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the strait would stay closed until the U.S. accepted Tehran's terms. Maritime-tracking data cited in coverage of the period showed traffic still severely suppressed, with some trackers citing roughly a 95 percent drop from the pre-crisis baseline. The impasse followed a June memorandum of understanding, which lapsed Aug. 17 without a broader settlement, and an Aug. 24 U.S. sanctions campaign that further hardened positions on both sides. Twenty-six percent of the community predicted a deal (YES); the 74 percent predicting NO were correct, consistent with continued Hormuz gridlock and no joint U.S.-Iran announcement by the deadline.