Wall Street sees core PCE holding at 3.3%. Does July's reading top that when the report lands Aug 26?

July's core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 3.3% year-over-year, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported August 26, 2026, matching rather than exceeding the 3.3% consensus economists had projected. The reading was unchanged from June, with the core index up 0.2% on the month; the broader headline PCE index rose 3.7% annually, also flat versus June and slightly above the 3.6% Reuters-polled forecast. Services prices drove most of the stickiness, rising 0.3% on the month, led by a 1.2% jump in financial services and insurance and continued gains in housing costs. Food-at-home prices eased slightly as some large retailers applied tariff-refund rebates to cut prices on select items, a modest offset to otherwise persistent inflation. With core inflation still running well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, policymakers held the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% in August, with three officials dissenting in favor of a hike; futures markets subsequently priced roughly a 62% chance of a hold versus 38% for a rate increase. Predict Six's community had leaned toward YES at 53% ahead of the release, anticipating a reading above consensus; the question resolved NO, as the print landed exactly at the expected 3.3%.