October 29, 2026

Alphabet shares closed lower on Oct. 29, 2026, than they had on Oct. 28, falling as much as 10-13% in what CNBC described as the stock's worst single-day drop on record, erasing roughly $500 billion in market value. The decline came after Alphabet reported third-quarter earnings after the market closed on Oct. 28, disclosing capital-expenditure plans in the neighborhood of $200 billion for AI infrastructure that unnerved investors already wary of heavy AI spending across the technology sector.

The selloff dragged the broader market down with it: the Nasdaq Composite fell about 1.4% on Oct. 29 as Alphabet's results reignited concerns about returns on AI investment that had already rattled markets earlier in October. The reaction stood in contrast to Microsoft's results, also released Oct. 28, which beat estimates on the strength of 48% Azure growth and were well received by investors, limiting the damage to the broader tech sector that day.

The community got this wrong: 64% expected Alphabet shares to close higher on Oct. 29 than on Oct. 28, but the stock instead posted one of its steepest declines in company history following the earnings report.

The Nasdaq Composite closed above 26,250 on Oct. 28, 2026, settling at roughly 26,549.85 the day the Federal Reserve held its policy meeting, according to a market recap. That capped a recovery from a sharp mid-month selloff: the index had fallen 2.6% to 26,008.86 on Oct. 22 amid tech-sector losses, its worst one-day drop since June, before rebounding over the following week as earnings season got underway.

The rally proved short-lived. The next session, Reuters reported the Nasdaq fell 1.38% to close at 26,184.72 on Oct. 29 after Alphabet's third-quarter results, released after the Oct. 28 close, revived concerns about AI-related spending; Alphabet shares alone fell roughly 10-13% on the news. Microsoft, which also reported Oct. 28, posted a well-received earnings beat on 48% Azure growth that helped cushion the broader tech selloff that day.

The community was evenly split on this question, with 50% expecting the Nasdaq to top 26,250 by Oct. 28, a close call that resolved yes once the index's Wednesday close was confirmed above that level.

The Milwaukee Brewers closed out the 2026 World Series in Tampa Bay on Oct. 28, 2026, beating the Rays 4-1 in Game 5 at Tropicana Field to win the franchise's first championship. Milwaukee had taken a 3-0 series lead by winning Games 1 through 3, including a 10-1 rout in Game 3, before the Rays staved off elimination with a Game 4 win at home. The Brewers finished the job the following night.

Tampa Bay's only run came on a Chandler Simpson RBI double in the bottom of the ninth, but closer Trevor Megill secured the final out on a groundout. Catcher William Contreras was named Series MVP. The title ended a 57-season wait for Milwaukee, which had never previously won a World Series; the Rays, appearing in just their second World Series, also remained without a title.

The community got this right: 80% expected the Brewers to close out the series in Tampa by Oct. 28, matching the actual result.

The World Series did not need a Game 6. The Milwaukee Brewers clinched the title in five games, beating the Tampa Bay Rays 4-1 in Game 5 at Tropicana Field on Oct. 28, 2026. Milwaukee took a 3-0 series lead by winning Games 1 through 3 (3-2, 5-4 and 10-1), lost Game 4 to the Rays at the Trop, then closed out the series the next night.

Tampa Bay scored its only run of the finale in the bottom of the ninth on a two-out RBI double by Chandler Simpson, but closer Trevor Megill retired the next batter on a groundout to end it. Catcher William Contreras was named World Series MVP. The win gave Milwaukee its first championship in the franchise's 57-year history; neither the Brewers nor the Rays, who were making their first World Series appearance since 2008, had previously won a title.

The community got this wrong: 90% expected the series to reach a sixth game, but Milwaukee closed it out in five, a day earlier than the question anticipated.

Likud won the most seats of any party in Israel's Oct. 27, 2026 election, taking 27 seats despite trailing Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party in eight of the final ten pre-election polls. An i24NEWS election-day exit poll showed Likud at 27 seats to Yashar's 20, a result Globes' final count also put at 27 seats for Likud under the headline "Likud has 27 Knesset seats, Shas drops to 6."

The outcome reversed months of polling momentum that had favored Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff running on a centrist platform. The fragmentation of the center-left and center-right vote across multiple parties, including Yashar and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, left no single rival able to match Likud's tally even as Netanyahu's overall governing bloc fell short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, leaving coalition talks to determine Israel's next government.

The community got this right: 60% of forecasters expected Likud to hold onto the most seats, correctly anticipating the result despite the unfavorable polling trend heading into election day.

Likud topped 20 seats in Israel's Oct. 27, 2026 election, finishing with 27 seats according to both an i24NEWS election-day exit poll and final vote counts reported by Globes under the headline "Likud has 27 Knesset seats, Shas drops to 6." That is comfortably above the 20-seat threshold this question tracked and near the upper end of pre-election polling that had put Likud anywhere from 18 to 29 seats.

Likud's result made it the largest single party in the next Knesset, ahead of former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party, which took 20 seats in the exit poll. Netanyahu's showing came despite months of polling that showed Yashar leading in eight of the final ten surveys, suggesting a late consolidation of right-wing and traditional Likud voters as election day approached. Smaller coalition partners fared worse: Shas reportedly fell to six seats, within the broader bloc Netanyahu needs to form a government.

The community got this right: 75% of forecasters expected Likud to clear 20 seats, matching the eventual 27-seat result.

Israel held snap elections on Oct. 27, 2026, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition fell well short of the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. An i24NEWS exit poll projected Netanyahu's bloc at 55 seats against an opposition bloc of 49 and Arab parties holding 16, with Likud leading as the single largest party at 27 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party second at 20. Final vote counts corroborated a similar split, with Likud settling at 27 seats, leaving the religious-right bloc below the combined threshold needed to form a government on its own.

The race had been framed as close after Yashar led eight of the last ten pre-election polls, but Likud still topped the field on election day amid late movement back toward Netanyahu. A fragmented field, including Naftali Bennett's rising B'Yachad and a resurgent Itamar Ben-Gvir faction, split the right-wing vote and kept any single bloc from crossing 61 seats, leaving coalition negotiations to determine Israel's next government.

The community got this right: only 44% expected Netanyahu's coalition to clear 61 seats, correctly anticipating a result that left the bloc short of a majority.

This question asked whether the World Health Organization would confirm an Ebola case in a fourth African country by Oct. 19, 2026. It did not happen by that deadline. Congo, Uganda and Kenya were the three countries with confirmed cases in mid-October, with Kenya recording its first infection on Oct. 6 after a patient who had traveled from Congo died in Nairobi.

A fourth country was affected only a day or two after the window closed: Nigeria confirmed its first case of the outbreak on Oct. 20-21, 2026, in a woman who had traveled from Uganda to Abuja. Health officials said the strain matched the Bundibugyo variant driving the DR Congo outbreak and that there was no evidence of community spread; 53 contacts were being monitored as of Oct. 25. It was Nigeria's first Ebola case since 2014, and the patient was later medically evacuated to Switzerland on Oct. 26.

By late October, Congo's outbreak had killed roughly 4,300 people, with Kenya reporting nine cases including two deaths. The community got this wrong: 89% expected a fourth country to be confirmed by Oct. 19, correctly anticipating the eventual spread but misjudging the timing by about a day or two.

Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 results on Oct. 28, 2026, posting non-GAAP earnings of $4.89 per share, above the roughly $4.71 consensus estimate and the $4.72 threshold this question tracked. Revenue rose 19% year over year to about $92.3 billion, while net income climbed 32% to $36.6 billion.

The beat was driven by Azure, which grew 48% in constant currency, outpacing both Microsoft's own 44-45% guidance and Wall Street's forecast. Azure revenue, broken out in dollar terms for the first time, reached $33.17 billion for the quarter. Microsoft Cloud revenue overall rose 30% to $63.9 billion. Shares rose about 4% in after-hours trading following the report.

Management guided for continued strength, projecting 49-50% Azure growth next quarter, while flagging that heavy AI infrastructure spending, roughly $45 billion in capital expenditures for the quarter, would compress cloud gross margins to about 65%. Free cash flow fell 27% to $18.63 billion.

The community predicted this correctly: 80% of forecasters expected Microsoft to top $4.72 a share, in line with the actual beat.