Eisenkot's Yashar leads eight of the last ten Israeli polls. Can Netanyahu's Likud still win the most seats on Oct 27?
60% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 10 predictions cast.
Likud won the most seats of any party in Israel's Oct. 27, 2026 election, taking 27 seats despite trailing Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party in eight of the final ten pre-election polls. An i24NEWS election-day exit poll showed Likud at 27 seats to Yashar's 20, a result Globes' final count also put at 27 seats for Likud under the headline "Likud has 27 Knesset seats, Shas drops to 6."
The outcome reversed months of polling momentum that had favored Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff running on a centrist platform. The fragmentation of the center-left and center-right vote across multiple parties, including Yashar and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, left no single rival able to match Likud's tally even as Netanyahu's overall governing bloc fell short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, leaving coalition talks to determine Israel's next government.
The community got this right: 60% of forecasters expected Likud to hold onto the most seats, correctly anticipating the result despite the unfavorable polling trend heading into election day.