Israeli polls put Netanyahu's Likud anywhere from 18 to 29 seats. Does it win more than 20 on Oct 27?
75% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 12 predictions cast.
Likud topped 20 seats in Israel's Oct. 27, 2026 election, finishing with 27 seats according to both an i24NEWS election-day exit poll and final vote counts reported by Globes under the headline "Likud has 27 Knesset seats, Shas drops to 6." That is comfortably above the 20-seat threshold this question tracked and near the upper end of pre-election polling that had put Likud anywhere from 18 to 29 seats.
Likud's result made it the largest single party in the next Knesset, ahead of former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party, which took 20 seats in the exit poll. Netanyahu's showing came despite months of polling that showed Yashar leading in eight of the final ten surveys, suggesting a late consolidation of right-wing and traditional Likud voters as election day approached. Smaller coalition partners fared worse: Shas reportedly fell to six seats, within the broader bloc Netanyahu needs to form a government.
The community got this right: 75% of forecasters expected Likud to clear 20 seats, matching the eventual 27-seat result.