Polls put Netanyahu's coalition near 52 of 120 Knesset seats. Will it win 61 or more on Oct 27?
56% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 9 predictions cast.
Israel held snap elections on Oct. 27, 2026, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition fell well short of the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. An i24NEWS exit poll projected Netanyahu's bloc at 55 seats against an opposition bloc of 49 and Arab parties holding 16, with Likud leading as the single largest party at 27 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party second at 20. Final vote counts corroborated a similar split, with Likud settling at 27 seats, leaving the religious-right bloc below the combined threshold needed to form a government on its own.
The race had been framed as close after Yashar led eight of the last ten pre-election polls, but Likud still topped the field on election day amid late movement back toward Netanyahu. A fragmented field, including Naftali Bennett's rising B'Yachad and a resurgent Itamar Ben-Gvir faction, split the right-wing vote and kept any single bloc from crossing 61 seats, leaving coalition negotiations to determine Israel's next government.
The community got this right: only 44% expected Netanyahu's coalition to clear 61 seats, correctly anticipating a result that left the bloc short of a majority.