October 27, 2026

The Milwaukee Brewers routed the Tampa Bay Rays 10-1 in Game 3 of the World Series on Oct. 26 at Tropicana Field, taking a 3-0 series lead. Milwaukee broke the game open with an eight-run fifth inning, all scored with two outs, setting a World Series record; the inning's seven consecutive two-out hits also set a record.

The Brewers finished with 10 runs on 16 hits and no errors, while the Rays managed one run on three hits. Robert Gasser earned the win for Milwaukee, and Freddy Peralta took the loss for Tampa Bay. Both teams entered the series chasing a first championship, with Milwaukee never having won a World Series and Tampa Bay having lost its only prior appearance, in 2020.

With the Brewers now one win from the title, Game 4 followed Oct. 27 in Tampa. The community had given the Rays an 82% chance to win Game 3 at home, but Milwaukee's historic big inning reversed the expected trajectory of the night, leaving the crowd's forecast well off the mark on a game that turned almost entirely on one inning.

The NFL confirmed Jay-Z as the Super Bowl LXI halftime performer on Oct. 26, with the league, Apple Music and Roc Nation jointly making the announcement during the Cowboys-Eagles "Monday Night Football" broadcast. The show is scheduled for Feb. 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

Commissioner Roger Goodell said the league had worked with Jay-Z and Roc Nation for years and that he had asked Jay-Z to eventually headline himself once the timing felt right; Roc Nation has curated the halftime show since 2019. Reports in the preceding week, including from Puck News, said Jay-Z had selected himself for the slot over other performers reportedly considered, including Miley Cyrus and Justin Bieber. Jay-Z had previously turned down a headlining offer around 2020 over conditions he objected to, according to past reporting.

The reveal landed within the Oct. 26 window this question tracked, arriving later than the pattern of six of the prior seven halftime acts being named in September. The community was split evenly at 50%, reflecting genuine uncertainty over whether the reveal would clear the deadline, and it did, just barely.

The Dallas Cowboys beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-21 on "Monday Night Football" Oct. 26, covering as 4.5-point road favorites. Running back Javonte Williams carried 25 times for a career-high 155 yards and a touchdown, and quarterback Dak Prescott added a short touchdown run that extended Dallas's lead to 28-21 in the third quarter before Williams scored again late to seal it.

Philadelphia started backup quarterback Tanner McKee, with Jalen Hurts out for the season and Saquon Barkley sidelined by a hamstring injury, leaving the Eagles without their top two offensive players. The Eagles moved the ball effectively on their first two drives but could not sustain the pace as Dallas's running game took over in the second half. Dallas improved to 3-4 on the season, while Philadelphia fell to 2-5.

The community had given the Cowboys an 80% chance to win, correctly favoring Dallas given Philadelphia's injury-depleted offense. The final margin, 17 points, exceeded the pregame 4.5-point spread, reflecting how much Hurts's and Barkley's absences reshaped the matchup once the game began.

Lula won Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff, so Flávio Bolsonaro did not win by more than five points of the valid vote — he did not win the election at all. Official results from Brazil's electoral court (TSE) showed Lula taking 51.79% of valid votes (about 64.26 million) to Bolsonaro's 48.21% (about 59.83 million), a roughly 3.6-point margin in Lula's favor.

The outcome reversed polling that had shown Lula trailing narrowly in the final days before the vote. Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, had led the Oct. 4 first round but was overtaken in the runoff. He rejected the result and indicated he would challenge it in court. Brazil's Supreme Court had extended voting hours by two, at the joint request of both campaigns, following reports of isolated delays at polling stations.

Lula's win made him the first candidate since Brazil's return to direct elections in 1989 to capture the presidency after trailing in the first round.

The community had assigned just a 30% chance to a Bolsonaro blowout win, correctly leaning against that scenario, though the actual result went further still: Lula won outright rather than narrowly.

Lula won Brazil's Oct. 25 presidential runoff, defeating Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro 51.79% to 48.21% of valid votes, a margin of roughly 4.4 million ballots, according to the national electoral court (TSE). The result capped a comeback from the Oct. 4 first round, in which Bolsonaro had led 47.03% to 45.16%.

The win made Lula the first candidate since Brazil resumed direct presidential elections in 1989 to capture the presidency after finishing second in the first round. Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, refused to concede, called the result illegitimate and signaled he would pursue a legal challenge. Brazil's Supreme Court had ordered polling stations held open two additional hours that day, at the joint request of both campaigns, after reports of isolated delays.

Lula's victory gives him a new term after previous stints as president from 2003 to 2010 and since 2023, extending one of the more improbable comebacks in recent Brazilian political history given how close the first-round polling had been.

No community vote total was recorded for this question, so there is no crowd forecast to compare against the final outcome.

Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro by about 3.6 percentage points, 51.79% to 48.21%, in Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff, according to results from Brazil's electoral court (TSE), which recorded roughly 64.26 million votes for Lula against 59.83 million for Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro did not win by more than five points — he lost the runoff outright, having entered it after leading the Oct. 4 first round, 47.03% to 45.16%.

Bolsonaro rejected the result and said he would challenge it in court. Brazil's Supreme Court had ordered polls held open two extra hours that day at the joint request of both campaigns, following reports of isolated voting delays. The outcome made Lula the first candidate since Brazil's return to direct presidential elections in 1989 to win the presidency after finishing second in the first round.

The community had given Bolsonaro only a 44% chance of winning by more than five points, correctly leaning against that scenario. The actual result diverged even further than the "no" side anticipated: rather than a narrow Bolsonaro win, Lula won the runoff entirely.

Bitcoin did not close below $78,000 by Oct. 26. After trading near $81,700 on Oct. 20 following roughly $229 million in weekly spot bitcoin ETF outflows, the token kept drifting lower through the week but held above the $78,000 mark. Price trackers cited by Fortune put bitcoin at roughly $79,700 to $80,300 on Oct. 26, finding support in the high-$70,000s rather than breaking through the threshold this question tracked.

The decline tracked broader risk-off positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve's Oct. 27-28 policy meeting, along with continued withdrawals from spot bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. Traders were reluctant to add exposure before the Fed's rate decision, and elevated oil prices tied to Middle East tensions kept broader inflation concerns in play, adding to the cautious tone across risk assets that week.

The community had given just a 10% chance of a sub-$78,000 close, correctly anticipating that the price would hold above that level even as ETF outflows and pre-Fed caution pushed bitcoin to its lowest levels of the month.

Lula won Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff with 51.79% of valid votes (about 64.26 million) to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21% (about 59.83 million), a margin of roughly 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil's electoral court. Bolsonaro, who had led the Oct. 4 first round 47.03% to 45.16%, fell well short of a majority in the runoff, let alone the 52% threshold this question tracked. Brazil's Supreme Court had extended voting by two hours that day at the joint request of both campaigns amid reports of isolated delays.

The result made Lula the first candidate since Brazil resumed direct presidential elections in 1989 to win the presidency after trailing in the first round. Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, refused to concede, called the outcome illegitimate, and said he would mount a legal challenge.

The community had priced a 64% chance that Bolsonaro would clear 52% of the valid vote. He did not come close: Lula won outright, and Bolsonaro's share came in nearly four points below even that threshold, missing the actual majority by over three and a half points in Lula's favor.