Datafolha's last poll had Flavio Bolsonaro up 47-45 after Lula closed the gap. Can Lula take Brazil's runoff on Oct 25?
50% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 0 predictions cast.
Lula won Brazil's Oct. 25 presidential runoff, defeating Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro 51.79% to 48.21% of valid votes, a margin of roughly 4.4 million ballots, according to the national electoral court (TSE). The result capped a comeback from the Oct. 4 first round, in which Bolsonaro had led 47.03% to 45.16%.
The win made Lula the first candidate since Brazil resumed direct presidential elections in 1989 to capture the presidency after finishing second in the first round. Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, refused to concede, called the result illegitimate and signaled he would pursue a legal challenge. Brazil's Supreme Court had ordered polling stations held open two additional hours that day, at the joint request of both campaigns, after reports of isolated delays.
Lula's victory gives him a new term after previous stints as president from 2003 to 2010 and since 2023, extending one of the more improbable comebacks in recent Brazilian political history given how close the first-round polling had been.
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