Polls put Flávio Bolsonaro at 51%. Will he clear 52% of valid votes in the Oct 25 runoff?
64% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 11 predictions cast.
Lula won Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff with 51.79% of valid votes (about 64.26 million) to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21% (about 59.83 million), a margin of roughly 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil's electoral court. Bolsonaro, who had led the Oct. 4 first round 47.03% to 45.16%, fell well short of a majority in the runoff, let alone the 52% threshold this question tracked. Brazil's Supreme Court had extended voting by two hours that day at the joint request of both campaigns amid reports of isolated delays.
The result made Lula the first candidate since Brazil resumed direct presidential elections in 1989 to win the presidency after trailing in the first round. Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, refused to concede, called the outcome illegitimate, and said he would mount a legal challenge.
The community had priced a 64% chance that Bolsonaro would clear 52% of the valid vote. He did not come close: Lula won outright, and Bolsonaro's share came in nearly four points below even that threshold, missing the actual majority by over three and a half points in Lula's favor.