Flávio Bolsonaro edged Lula 47-45 in Brazil's first round. Will he win the Oct 25 runoff by more than five points?
56% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 9 predictions cast.
Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro by about 3.6 percentage points, 51.79% to 48.21%, in Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff, according to results from Brazil's electoral court (TSE), which recorded roughly 64.26 million votes for Lula against 59.83 million for Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro did not win by more than five points — he lost the runoff outright, having entered it after leading the Oct. 4 first round, 47.03% to 45.16%.
Bolsonaro rejected the result and said he would challenge it in court. Brazil's Supreme Court had ordered polls held open two extra hours that day at the joint request of both campaigns, following reports of isolated voting delays. The outcome made Lula the first candidate since Brazil's return to direct presidential elections in 1989 to win the presidency after finishing second in the first round.
The community had given Bolsonaro only a 44% chance of winning by more than five points, correctly leaning against that scenario. The actual result diverged even further than the "no" side anticipated: rather than a narrow Bolsonaro win, Lula won the runoff entirely.