August 20, 2026

Democrat Mary Peltola finished first in Alaska's U.S. Senate primary on August 18, 2026, taking 48.1% of the vote to Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan's 42.7%, with 98% of precincts reporting, according to the Anchorage Daily News. Alaska uses an all-party primary in which the top four finishers, regardless of party, advance to a general election decided by ranked-choice voting; Peltola and Sullivan were the top two finishers and both advanced. Peltola, a former U.S. House member who lost her seat in 2024, built her primary lead on strong turnout in Anchorage and rural precincts, while Sullivan's showing raised questions about his standing as an incumbent in a race national analysts have rated among the most competitive Senate contests of the 2026 cycle. The two are set to face off again in the November 3, 2026, general election. Predict Six's community favored yes with 58% of 26 votes, correctly anticipating that Peltola would finish first in the primary.

Lowe's Companies reported second-quarter 2026 sales of approximately $26.0 billion on August 19, 2026, falling short of the $26.25 billion revenue threshold this question asked about, even as total sales grew 8.3% year over year from $24.0 billion. Comparable sales increased just 0.2%, with a volatile month-to-month pattern that saw May down 0.4%, June up 1.7% and July down 1.2%, reflecting continued softness in do-it-yourself home-improvement spending. Growth was concentrated in Lowe's Pro contractor business, home services and online sales, which rose 15.7%, but those gains were not enough to push total sales above the revenue bar this question set. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of roughly $92 billion in sales and about flat comparable sales, signaling it does not expect a sharp acceleration in DIY demand for the remainder of the year. The report, released alongside an earnings-per-share beat, underscored a split picture at Lowe's in 2026: profitability holding up even as top-line growth trailed Wall Street's more optimistic revenue targets. Predict Six's community leaned toward no with 33% predicting yes on three votes, correctly anticipating that revenue would fall short of $26.25 billion.

Deere & Company reported fiscal third-quarter 2026 results on August 20, 2026, posting net income of $1.379 billion, or $5.10 per share, well above the $4.85 per-share threshold this question asked about and above the roughly $4.45 analyst consensus. Total revenue reached about $12.61 billion, exceeding estimates by approximately 17%. Construction and forestry equipment drove the outperformance, with that segment's operating margin expanding to 12.1% from 7.7% a year earlier, while the Small Agriculture and Turf division benefited from higher shipment volumes and favorable pricing. Deere raised its full-year net income guidance to a range of $4.75 billion to $5.00 billion and characterized fiscal 2026 as the likely bottom of the current agricultural equipment downturn, pointing to signs that farm machinery demand had stopped declining. The results marked a fifth consecutive quarter in which Deere topped Wall Street's profit expectations, even as the broader agricultural equipment market continued to face pressure from soft crop prices and reduced farmer capital spending. Predict Six's community was evenly split on this question with four votes recorded; the actual result came in well above the target.

Walmart reported fiscal second-quarter 2027 results on August 20, 2026, posting adjusted earnings per share of $0.81, above the $0.74 top-end estimate this question referenced. Total revenue rose 5.9% to $187.9 billion. The earnings beat was driven in part by tariff-refund benefits that widened gross margins, while comparable sales in the U.S. business rose 2.6%, short of the roughly 3.7% to 3.8% growth analysts had expected. Walmart raised its full-year guidance, now projecting constant-currency sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0% and adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $2.87 for the fiscal year. Despite the headline beat, investors focused on the composition of the results, and Walmart shares fell about 8.9% the day of the report as traders questioned whether tariff-related benefits masked softer underlying sales momentum. The reaction reflected a recurring 2026 theme in retail earnings, where headline profit beats tied to tariff refunds have not always translated into share-price gains when core sales growth disappoints. Predict Six's community favored yes with 70% of 23 votes, correctly anticipating the earnings beat.

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released August 20, 2026, put the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.65%, down slightly from 6.67% the previous week but above the 6.55% threshold this question asked about. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 5.95%, also little changed from 5.96% a week earlier. Freddie Mac's weekly survey, one of the most closely watched gauges of U.S. borrowing costs, tracks rates on conventional, conforming home-purchase loans for borrowers with strong credit and a 20% down payment. Mortgage rates have hovered in the mid-to-high 6% range through much of 2026, keeping affordability strained for prospective homebuyers even as rates have eased modestly from earlier peaks near 7%. The persistence of rates above 6.5% has continued to weigh on existing-home sales and new mortgage applications heading into the fall selling season. Predict Six's community leaned toward no, with 33% predicting yes on three votes, correctly anticipating that the rate would remain above the 6.55% mark.

The People's Bank of China left its benchmark Loan Prime Rate unchanged on August 20, 2026, keeping the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year-plus rate, which influences mortgage pricing, at 3.50%. It marked the 15th consecutive month the central bank has held both rates steady, according to Xinhua. The decision matched the median forecast among analysts, as none of the market participants surveyed by Reuters ahead of the announcement anticipated a change to either tenor. China's central bank sets the LPR monthly based on rates submitted by roughly 20 designated commercial banks to the National Interbank Funding Center, weighing that input against competing goals of supporting economic growth and containing financial risks such as currency pressure and elevated local-government debt. The prolonged pause reflects Beijing's preference for targeted fiscal and credit tools over broad rate cuts this year. Predict Six's community leaned heavily toward expecting a cut, with all votes predicting yes on only two votes cast, a result that did not match the actual outcome of no change.

Lowe's Companies reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 19, 2026, posting diluted earnings per share of $4.27, above the $4.22 per share Wall Street had been expecting. Adjusted diluted EPS, which strips out one-time items, rose 1.6% year over year to $4.40. The beat was aided by an $0.11 per-share benefit from tariff refunds tied to IEEPA-related duties. Total sales for the quarter climbed 8.3% to roughly $26.0 billion, driven by growth in Pro contractor sales, home services and a 15.7% jump in online sales, even as comparable sales rose just 0.2% amid continued softness in DIY spending. Lowe's reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting sales of about $92 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $12.25. The results extended a stretch of earnings beats for the home-improvement retailer even as it continues to navigate a slower do-it-yourself market than in prior years. Predict Six's community was evenly split on this question, with only two votes recorded, showing no clear directional lean ahead of the release; the actual result came in above the target.

The U.S. Labor Department reported on August 20, 2026, that initial jobless claims for the prior week totaled 206,000, below the 210,000 threshold this question asked about and down from a revised 212,000 the week before. The reading also came in below the roughly 210,000 consensus forecast among economists. Weekly claims are compiled from state unemployment insurance filings and released every Thursday by the Employment and Training Administration. The lower-than-expected figure indicated that layoffs remained contained even as other labor-market indicators, including continuing claims, which rose to 1.799 million, pointed to longer job searches for workers who had already lost positions. The report fit into a broader August 2026 pattern in which the Federal Reserve and market participants parsed a mixed signal from the labor market: employers holding on to workers while hiring cooled, a dynamic that shaped expectations for the Fed's coming policy decisions. Predict Six's community was split evenly on this question, with only two votes recorded and no clear consensus in either direction ahead of the release.