Will the People's Bank of China cut its one-year loan prime rate on Aug 20?

The People's Bank of China left its benchmark Loan Prime Rate unchanged on August 20, 2026, keeping the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year-plus rate, which influences mortgage pricing, at 3.50%. It marked the 15th consecutive month the central bank has held both rates steady, according to Xinhua. The decision matched the median forecast among analysts, as none of the market participants surveyed by Reuters ahead of the announcement anticipated a change to either tenor. China's central bank sets the LPR monthly based on rates submitted by roughly 20 designated commercial banks to the National Interbank Funding Center, weighing that input against competing goals of supporting economic growth and containing financial risks such as currency pressure and elevated local-government debt. The prolonged pause reflects Beijing's preference for targeted fiscal and credit tools over broad rate cuts this year. Predict Six's community leaned heavily toward expecting a cut, with all votes predicting yes on only two votes cast, a result that did not match the actual outcome of no change.