November 13, 2026

Iran and the United States did not announce a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Nov. 12, 2026, despite Tehran's earlier offer to reopen the waterway if Washington met a list of conditions, including lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets and ending regional hostilities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called those terms "outrageous" in early November and said a breakthrough was not imminent, CBS News and NBC News reported.

On Nov. 12, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US does not "need" a deal with Iran, citing continued US pressure including the blockade, and pulled Vice President JD Vance off the negotiating track to focus instead on alleged domestic corruption, CNN and NBC News reported. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration intended to keep economically squeezing Iran rather than finalize an agreement.

The Strait of Hormuz remained a flashpoint rather than a resolved issue: a day after Trump's remarks, Iran targeted a US military site in the Gulf for the first time in two months, CNN reported, as diplomatic momentum stalled further.

Predict Six's community had assigned only 13% odds to a reopening announcement, correctly anticipating that no deal would be reached by the deadline.

Democrat Scott Colom defeated Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi's US Senate race, with major outlets projecting the winner on Nov. 11, 2026, after days of counting mail, absentee and provisional ballots, NBC News and CBS News reported. The race tightened steadily after Election Day as additional ballots were tabulated, with Colom's lead growing to several thousand votes before counties certified results by the Nov. 13 deadline.

Colom, a 43-year-old local prosecutor, becomes Mississippi's first Black US senator since Reconstruction, according to NBC News. Hyde-Smith conceded, with her campaign confirming she called Colom directly. Colom's campaign centered on affordability, including a viral video responding to Hyde-Smith's remarks about beef prices.

The win is notable because Donald Trump carried Mississippi by roughly 23 points in 2024, making it the most Republican-leaning state to elect a Democratic senator this cycle. It also padded Senate Democrats' majority, which networks projected would reach at least 55 seats following the broader midterm results.

Predict Six's community had placed 100% odds on Colom flipping the seat, correctly anticipating the outcome, after pre-certification reporting already showed him with a durable lead.

US forces carried out limited strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island on Nov. 6-7, 2026, the first such action since Republicans suffered sweeping losses in Tuesday's midterm elections, NBC News reported. President Trump, asked about the operation, said "we do minor strikes" without detailing the target, while US officials described the action as defensive in nature.

The strikes came as the US maintained a naval blockade on Iranian ports and pressed for a diplomatic settlement to the war that began earlier in 2026. Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm Island, and Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran reserved the right to self-defense. US officials cautioned the operation did not signal a return to full-scale combat.

The Nov. 6-7 strikes followed a separate round of US strikes on the same island in early November, before the midterms, underscoring the intermittent nature of the conflict even as both sides discussed terms for ending it. Gulf states had reportedly been told to brace for a short, intense US campaign against Iran once the midterms concluded.

Predict Six's community put 67% odds on a strike occurring by Nov. 12, correctly anticipating the outcome.

Iran proposed in early November 2026 to compress the implementation timeline of a prospective deal with the United States to two days, down from seven, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, with the offer relayed through Qatari mediators, NBC News reported. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Tehran's underlying conditions -- including lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets and ending hostilities across the region -- "outrageous" and said a breakthrough was not imminent.

No US-Iran meeting materialized by Nov. 12. Instead, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that day that the US does not "need" a deal with Iran and directed Vice President JD Vance, who had led recent negotiating efforts, to instead focus on alleged corruption in Democratic-run states, CNN and NBC News reported. Vance had publicly tied the Iran war to Republicans' midterm losses days earlier. A day after Trump's post, Iran targeted a US military site in the Gulf for the first time in two months, CNN reported, as hopes for a negotiated settlement faded further.

The episode capped weeks of on-again, off-again diplomacy after the two sides' earlier framework agreement broke down over enforcement terms. Predict Six's community correctly anticipated no meeting would occur, assigning it 0% odds.

Applied Materials reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $10.41 billion on Nov. 12, 2026, up 53% year over year and above both the $10.3 billion threshold in question and analysts' average estimate of roughly $10.30 billion, Reuters reported. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $4.16, also topping forecasts near $4.06. The semiconductor equipment maker's Semiconductor Systems segment, which sells machines used to fabricate AI chips, grew 64% to $8.00 billion, with leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM and advanced packaging cited as the strongest areas of demand. For the full fiscal year, revenue reached a record $34.45 billion, up 21%, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $12.89.

CEO Gary Dickerson said demand for advanced semiconductors remains "much higher than supply," and the company forecast first-quarter revenue of about $11.10 billion, above the roughly $10.89 billion analysts had expected. Applied also reported record quarterly free cash flow of $2.6 billion and its largest share buyback in more than eight years.

The results extend a run of strong earnings among companies supplying equipment for AI-chip production, a sector that has driven much of this year's semiconductor-industry growth. Predict Six's community had placed 86% odds on Applied Materials clearing $10.3 billion, correctly anticipating the beat.