Iran says it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington meets six conditions. Will the two announce a reopening deal by Nov 12?
87% of users predicted NO — the community got this one right. 8 predictions cast.
Iran and the United States did not announce a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Nov. 12, 2026, despite Tehran's earlier offer to reopen the waterway if Washington met a list of conditions, including lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets and ending regional hostilities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called those terms "outrageous" in early November and said a breakthrough was not imminent, CBS News and NBC News reported.
On Nov. 12, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US does not "need" a deal with Iran, citing continued US pressure including the blockade, and pulled Vice President JD Vance off the negotiating track to focus instead on alleged domestic corruption, CNN and NBC News reported. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration intended to keep economically squeezing Iran rather than finalize an agreement.
The Strait of Hormuz remained a flashpoint rather than a resolved issue: a day after Trump's remarks, Iran targeted a US military site in the Gulf for the first time in two months, CNN reported, as diplomatic momentum stalled further.
Predict Six's community had assigned only 13% odds to a reopening announcement, correctly anticipating that no deal would be reached by the deadline.