November 5, 2026

Mississippi's 2026 U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic challenger Scott Colom became one of the closest statewide contests in the state's modern history, resolving the question of a sub-6-point margin as true. With about 95.6% of the expected vote counted, unofficial returns reported by Jackson television station WLBT showed Colom leading Hyde-Smith by just 1,138 votes, 464,926 (49.0%) to 463,788 (48.9%), with independent Ty Pinkins taking 19,934 votes (2.1%). The gap between the top two candidates was a fraction of one percentage point, far inside the 6-point threshold this question asked about.

The tightness marked a sharp break from Hyde-Smith's past statewide performances; she defeated Colom's Democratic predecessor, Mike Espy, by roughly 10 points in 2020. Pre-election forecasters, including Silver Bulletin and Split Ticket, had rated the race Solid or Safe Republican, and a Kalshi prediction market had put Hyde-Smith's odds at 88% to win days before the election, making the closeness one of the midterms' sharper departures from expectations.

The community correctly anticipated a close finish, with 70% predicting the race would be decided by under 6 points, matching the outcome.

Intel shares fell 28.6% on October 30, closing at $65.76 after the company's fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $15 billion to $16 billion came in well below the roughly $17 billion Wall Street expected, alongside earnings guidance that also missed forecasts. Financial outlets, including the Motley Fool, described it as Intel's worst single-day decline since 1974, erasing more than $140 billion in market value in one session. The drop followed an otherwise solid third-quarter report; the guidance miss was attributed to a deteriorating PC market, supply constraints in data-center chips, and a factory incident in Israel the company said would cut roughly $300 million from fourth-quarter revenue. Several Wall Street analysts cut price targets and ratings afterward.

The stock did not recover to the $68 threshold in this question. By November 4, INTC continued trading well below that level, as the broader chip sector, including AMD and Qualcomm, also sold off that week. The community leaned toward a rebound, with 60% predicting yes, but the stock remained below $68 through the resolution date.

Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., had not been charged with any federal crime as of November 3, despite an active Justice Department investigation into her immigration history. Federal agents searched her Washington-area home on October 12, seizing her phone, notebooks and a personal computer, and prosecutors issued more than a dozen grand jury subpoenas in Minnesota, including to family members, according to reporting from NBC News and the Associated Press. The inquiry centers on allegations that Omar committed immigration fraud through her marriage to Ahmed Elmi, whom critics allege is her brother, and made false statements on government paperwork; a separate review of her financial disclosures was also underway.

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said DHS had referred a "large case" involving multiple people to the Justice Department, and prosecutors told a court the investigation of Omar and "other individuals" remained active, with no charging decision announced. Omar denied wrongdoing and called the probe a politically motivated abuse of power; more than 170 House Democrats urged the department to drop it. She won a fifth term in Congress on November 3 with the investigation still unresolved.

The community was evenly split at 50%, and the no-charges outcome matched half of predictors' expectations.

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a Democrat, defeated Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin's open-seat governor's race on November 3, becoming the state's first Black governor. Unofficial returns put Crowley at roughly 53.4% to 53.6% of the vote against Tiffany's 46.4% to 46.6%, a margin of about 6.8 to 7.2 points, clearing the 5-point threshold in this question. Tiffany conceded on election night, saying he wished Crowley and his family well as Crowley prepares to take office.

The result tracked closely with pre-election polling: the final Marquette Law School survey had shown Crowley ahead by 7 points among likely voters, and the RealClearPolling average had him up about 4.5 points. Crowley ran with Sarah Godlewski as his lieutenant governor pick; Tiffany's running mate was David Varnam. The win extended a string of recent statewide victories for Wisconsin Democrats and came amid a broader night of Democratic gains in governor's and Senate races across several swing states.

The community correctly anticipated the outcome, with 75% of predictors backing a win beyond 5 points before final results came in, matching the final result.

Brazilian voters delivered President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva a second term over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in an October 25 runoff, with Lula taking roughly 51% of valid votes to Bolsonaro's 48%. Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, refused to concede on election night, citing a two-hour extension of voting hours in some cities and saying he would seek to have the result annulled. His Liberal Party, led by Valdemar Costa Neto, broke with that position the next day, October 26, formally recognizing Lula's victory while still raising unspecified "questions" about the vote. Bolsonaro himself had not issued a personal concession as of November 3, though he denied plans to leave the country, agreed to hand over his passport, and said he would "organize the opposition." Former President Trump had separately called the vote "rigged."

The split between Bolsonaro's personal defiance and his party's acceptance became a point of friction within the Brazilian right in the runoff's aftermath. The community was evenly divided at 50% on whether he would concede by November 3. The outcome, no personal concession from Bolsonaro, landed on the "no" side of that even split.