The final Marquette poll put David Crowley up 7 in Wisconsin. Does he win the governor's race by more than 5 points on Nov 3?
75% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 8 predictions cast.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a Democrat, defeated Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin's open-seat governor's race on November 3, becoming the state's first Black governor. Unofficial returns put Crowley at roughly 53.4% to 53.6% of the vote against Tiffany's 46.4% to 46.6%, a margin of about 6.8 to 7.2 points, clearing the 5-point threshold in this question. Tiffany conceded on election night, saying he wished Crowley and his family well as Crowley prepares to take office.
The result tracked closely with pre-election polling: the final Marquette Law School survey had shown Crowley ahead by 7 points among likely voters, and the RealClearPolling average had him up about 4.5 points. Crowley ran with Sarah Godlewski as his lieutenant governor pick; Tiffany's running mate was David Varnam. The win extended a string of recent statewide victories for Wisconsin Democrats and came amid a broader night of Democratic gains in governor's and Senate races across several swing states.
The community correctly anticipated the outcome, with 75% of predictors backing a win beyond 5 points before final results came in, matching the final result.